Better H2 expected despite tough conditions
​This morning Molins (MLIN) reported Interim results in line with management expectations, with sales from continuing operations of £35.0m (2015: £39.5m) and an underlying profit before tax from continuing operations of £0.1m (2015: £1.3m).
As in recent years, the Group's full year trading performance will be significantly weighted towards the second half.However today Molins has stated that it is experiencing continuing delays in receiving orders and is therefore taking a more cautious view of the short-term trading outlook, and has revised downwards its trading expectations for the current year. Consequently going forward, regardless of the usual Q4 seasonal bounce, we have downgraded our 2016 and 2017 PBTA forecasts by -28% and -6% respectively to £1.9m and £3.2m.
The new CEO, Tony Steels, appointed in June, has started a review of the strategic direction of the business with the aim of maximising growth, economies of scale, efficiencies and operating margins. This is a complex exercise involving many moving parts, and will take approx. 3-6 months to complete with conclusions set for late this year or early 2017.
Given the tough short term outlook, we reduce our target price from 120p to 90p a share. At 61p, we rate the shares as good value, trading at a 19% discount to net tangible assets (75p) and on modest EV/EBIT and PE multiples of 7.7x and 8x respectively, whilst also offering a 4.5% prospective yield (2.7x covered).
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