Challenging, albeit resilient, 2024e… – Our 2024e forecasts picture the precarious backdrop in the auto trade business, which is expected to partly offset the strong performance in long term rentals and the resilient picture in short term rentals and used car sales. In the meantime, the inflationary environment alongside the normalization of the supply chain have led to higher priced vehicles and at the same time stabilizing demand, thus weighing on vehicles inventory and depreciation costs. We ...
Challenging, albeit resilient, 2024e… – Our 2024e forecasts picture the precarious backdrop in the auto trade business, which is expected to partly offset the strong performance in long term rentals and the resilient picture in short term rentals and used car sales. In the meantime, the inflationary environment alongside the normalization of the supply chain have led to higher priced vehicles and at the same time stabilizing demand, thus weighing on vehicles inventory and depreciation costs. We ...
Average crude oil prices changed little in December, after production increases and perceived weakness in demand pushed prices down in November. The WOOD benchmark margin remains above average, despite reaching its lowest level in 2024, after declining by USD 0.7/bbl. Petrochemicals remains in the doldrums, with some product groups marginally better and others marginally worse.
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 3Q24 not as weak as feared – once the special claims end, should deliver a very strong profitability profile POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 13% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, 3% above our forecast and 6% above the consensus POSITIVE • OPAP: 3Q24 earnings beat expectations, as EBITDA jumps 24% yoy POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Elbit Syste...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: high net cash position and strong FCFF yield (upgraded to BUY) • GTC: buys German residential portfolio worth EUR 448m • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs weigh on the 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations; new signed contracts for defence and high-tech industries NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q24 highlights – solid, on the back of better-than-expected NIM • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 call takeaways – strong long-term ...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Greek oil refiners: need a little time to shake things up (HELLENiQ Energy downgraded to HOLD, Motor Oil Hellas stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q24 sales down 5% yoy, to PLN 15.7m NEGATIVE • Allegro: announces another change in CEO post NEGATIVE • InPost: acquisition of remaining 70% stake in Menzies for GBP 60m POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO NEUTRAL • Polish media: TVN put on sale for PLN 5bn, according to Newsweek NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24E prev...
With benchmark refining margins falling to long-term average levels in September, we see little hope for a rebound in the short term. Oil prices are down, due to slowing demand growth, which flags further possible declines in margins. Energy costs remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, putting European refiners at a disadvantage, while many of the usual crude oil supplies are not available, or are significantly more expensive. Both companies have made the most of recent windfalls, makin...
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: waiting for better times (downgraded to HOLD) • Noval Property: 1H24 – recurring results in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: fire at refinery NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: key takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: another land plot sales tranche, to lift NAV by 6% POSITIVE • mBank: UniCredit seeks regulator's approval to reach 30% stake in Commerzbank • CTP: raises EUR 300m through an ABB, at EUR 16.0/share • 11...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • DIGI Communications: heavyweight European telco champion (upgraded to BUY) • PZU: posts PLN 1.19bn of net profit in 2Q24; results affected by higher combined ratio in P&C NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: 2Q24 results POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q24 EBITDA 4-7% above expectations; Polaris to enter production phase “very soon” NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 2Q24 EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q24 – in line, at first glance NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 2Q24 i...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: awaiting a NII inflection point (stays BUY) • MONETA Money Bank: valuation prices in higher ROE and strong yield (stays HOLD) • Ten Square Games: 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA 16% above our forecast; TEN confirms mom bookings recovery in July POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: new tenders for ecological bombs decommissioning on the market NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q24E results previe...
Benchmark refining margins rose in July, by USD 0.7/bbl, to USD 9.5/bbl, after four straight months of decline remaining about USD 1.9/bbl higher than usual for the season. Better petrol cracks were the main driver of margins and we believe that this may be temporary. Petrochemicals margins remain under pressure.
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: NBR delivers first rate cut • Inter Cars: June sales up by a limited 3% yoy, disappointing second month in a row NEGATIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: teams up, reportedly, with Terna Energy for offshore wind in Greece POSITIVE • Jahez: submits transfer request to the main market POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: completion of Stage 1 of share capital increase and opening of Stage 2 NEUTRAL • Arcelik: potential closure of Yate plant in the UK NEUTRAL • Short News (CPS)
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP on a protracted hold • NEPI Rockcastle: sells Promenada Novi Sad in Serbia for EUR 177m POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 1Q24-25 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 518m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 2Q24E NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: June sales growth at 11% yoy, below our expectations NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • Elm: announces resignation of CEO and new CEO appointment NEUTRAL • Greek...
HEADLINES: • Text: 1Q24-25 (calendar 2Q24) preliminary results – USD 22.6m preliminary cash flow (up 12% yoy, 4% qoq) POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: to sell EUR 18.2m worth of Ellaktor shares (ELLAKTOR GA), as Reggeborgh exercises call option POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: awarded USD 733m contract for three new rigs POSITIVE • Krka: 2018 appeal against EU perindopril anticompetition case overturned NEUTRAL • Short News (HTO)
HEADLINES: • EME Strategy: Türkiye - inflation accounting - demystifying the enigma • Greek refiners: Finance Ministry to impose an unexpected windfall tax on refiners • GEK Terna: agrees to sell Terna Energy to Masdar of Abu Dhabi • LPP: the Prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation against Hindenburg Research • Uzbekistan macro: notes from our recent trip • Short news (MTELEKOM)
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