Cenergy | Charging ahead
Raising our FY’25 EBITDA estimate on strong HV delivery, MV/LV resilience and steel pipes outperformance – We raise our FY’25 forecasts for Cenergy, now expecting group adj. EBITDA at €343m (+26% yoy) by year-end (mgt guidance at €310-340m) corresponding to group adj. EBITDA margin of 16.4%. Our revised estimates primarily reflect stronger Cables margins (adj. EBITDA margin 16.5% for FY’25e vs. 15.5% prior) supported by greater feed-in of HV and new capacity across the entire core offering. We also factor in continued strength in Steel pipes, where we model 16.3% adj. EBITDA margin for FY’25e, underpinned by persistent secular momentum. Robust H1’25 results, firmer MV/LV cable demand and easing concerns on replenishment reinforce our view for sustained strong run-rates through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, with limited downside risks to the outlook at this stage, we believe.>15% 4-yr EBITDA CAGR anchored on volume ramp-up, cable margin acceleration – Our updated 2025-28e estimates point to group adj. EBITDA CAGR of c15%, driven by 21% 4-yr cables adj. EBITDA CAGR and sustained near-term resilience from steel pipes. Growth in cables is supported by full capacity ramp-up across HV/MV/LV lines, improved blended pricing from HV contracts and the sizeable €2.8bn cables projects backlog (>50% tied to HV) which provides visibility until 2028-29, while the US expansion adds further upside from mid-2027 onward. For steel pipes, we see continuing near-term support from gas transmission projects and LNG infra upgrades across the EU through 2026-27 but assume these taper off thereafter. Overall, given the mix shift to higher-margin activities, expected operating leverage and scale benefits from new capacity, we anticipate group adj. EBITDA margin reaching 17% by 2028e (c1.8pps above 2024 levels), still above consensus estimates for Prysmian, Nexans and NKT. Our new Cenergy FY25-27e EBITDA stands c5-10% above current consensus.
Front-loaded capex creates room for post-tax ROIC acceleration – Following on from the sizeable €253m capex deployed in 2024, we expect investment to peak at €272m in 2025e, easing to €180m in 2026e and normalizing at €110-120m p.a. from 2027e onward. While net debt is set to rise temporarily in 2025-26e due to peak investment cycle outlays, we forecast strong FCF generation from 2026e onwards enabling notable deleveraging, with net debt falling to
Cenergy Holdings SA is a Belgian holding company. The Company invests in industrial companies, positioned at the forefront of high growth sectors, such as energy transfer, renewables and data transmission. Its portfolio consists of Corinth Pipeworks, that is active in the steel pipe manufacturing for the oil and gas sector and producer of hollow sections for the construction sector, as well as Cablel Hellenic Cables Group, the cable producer in Europe, manufactures power, submarine and telecom cables for various sectors, including oil and gas, renewable energy, energy transmission and distribution, construction and telecommunications. Its both entities have state of the art production facilities, market and product diversification, along with an innovation and strategic investments.
Eurobank Equities is a Greek-based firm offering research, sales and trading services to institutional, corporate and private clients. The company is wholly owned by Eurobank, one of the 4 systemic banks in Greece.
Research is the backbone of Eurobank Equities' platform, with a team of 4 professionals committed to generating actionable investment ideas by providing timely research products. We are committed to offering value-added services to clients by filtering market noise and providing insights on the multiple sectors that we cover. Our universe includes 26 - large, medium and small cap - companies whose market capitalization amounts to 80-85% of the total market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange. Our research team also maintains the capacity to generate ad-hoc research for micro-cap listed companies.
Our team has consistently gained recognition among institutional investors for its quality research, having ranked No. 1 team in Greece at the Extel Surveys of 2013-2016 and 2018. We have also been named Leading Brokerage Firm in Greece over 2014-2016 and in 2018.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.