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Dimand | Patience Required, Value Intact

Progress delivered in 2025, but at a more measured tempo than we had hoped – While initial guidance pointed to three exits within the year (Minion, EEDE Patissia and Piraeus Tower), only Minion seems on track for completion in 2025, with the remaining transactions shifting into 2026. H1’25 results also indicated a milder pace of construction progress than we had previously anticipated, as reflected in softer fair value gains, leading us to recalibrate our development phasing. At the same time though, 2025 marked a further deepening of the pipeline, with the acquisition of Gournes for c€40m, while we expect the closing of Cambas to follow in early 2026, strengthening Dimand’s long-term growth trajectory, albeit with higher near-term capital requirements.

2026 becoming the primary window for value creation – We now expect the bulk of disposals originally slated for 2025 to be completed in 2026, namely Piraeus Tower, EEDE Patissia and DI Terna, together generating cash profits of >€30m and supporting Dimand’s capital recycling strategy. That said, the slippage observed this year highlights that exit timing remains sensitive to buyer negotiations and market conditions, introducing an execution risk, particularly for larger assets. Even so, our broader investment thesis remains intact: the underlying value creation from the current pipeline is largely unchanged, with cumulative cash profits of c€170m still expected to be crystallized through 2028e. In our view, recent delays reflect timing rather than structural shifts, while the addition of Gournes and Cambas meaningfully strengthen Dimand’s long-term development opportunity set.

How to value Dimand – Valuing Dimand is a rather herculean task due to the complexities associated with the group’s structure and the nature of the development business itself. Our approach is quite simple, namely we value Dimand’s stake in: 1) projects in progress, 2) projects recently announced; and 3) project Skyline, while also adding the value of: 4) the project mgt services business, which is “asset-light” and can be considered a recurring income stream. We are not keen to assign a perpetual value for Dimand at this stage, since our PT is on a 12m basis and, at the current juncture, we believe that any growth potential for the company beyond its current and in-progress land bank scale would be hard to be priced-in. Our reverse-engineering exercise suggests that the current share price incorporates the well telegraphed projects in progress, Skyline and the value of the services Business, along with marginal value from recently announced projects (Lavrio, Notos, Cambas and Gournes), effectively leaving them on offer as almost free option. We remind that the latter project set has €1.2bn total development cost and potential incremental value creation near €1.9 per share, on our numbers, in present value terms.

Valuation – We have refreshed our assumptions around construction phasing and exit timing, leaving our SOTP-derived target price unchanged at €12.0/share. While the stock has seen a solid rerating since June, rebounding to the €9.5–10.15 range, valuation remains subdued at