IDEAL HOLDINGS | Fuel for the next leg
Barba Stathis deal sealed at €166m EV; enhancing exposure to defensive sectors – IDEAL Holdings completed the acquisition of 100% of Barba Stathis (BBS) on March 31st, in a transaction valued at €166m EV (with the equity component at €130m). The deal was funded through a mix of internal cash and c€38m in debt and marks a strategic step toward reinforcing IDH’s exposure to non-cyclical, cash-generative sectors. In our view, BBS fits squarely within the group’s investment framework — a market leader in a mature, resilient category with meaningful upside from operating leverage and international expansion. We value the acquired company at c12x 2025e EV/EBITDA, namely a bit higher than the purchase price (implying >€0.30/share value creation) and at premium vs. global food packaging peers justified by the company’s leading market positioning in Greece and operating leverage potential (c3.2 pps EBITDA margin accretion embedded in our estimates by 2029).Eyeing 10% 4-year group EBITDAaL CAGR post BBS deal... – We recalibrate the pro-forma group picture, adding Bluestream (in IT) and the recently acquired Barba Stathis. For 2025e, we pin group revenues at c€520m and pro-forma EBITDAaL at c€60m, with the latter being quite diversified (IT contributing c29% of EBITDAaL, BBS near 26%, ADS making up c46%). With BBS margins expected to rise towards the 14% area, the deal looks set to have a mildly positive impact on group margins, which we estimate expanding to >12% by 2028e, from 11.2% in 2024 (PF). Overall, we come up with c10% group EBITDAaL CAGR over the 2024-28e period, stemming from a c10% CAGR for IT, another c15% for Barba Stathis and c5% for ADS.
…and still with ample headroom for capital deployment – Apart from enhancing the group’s defensive exposure, the BBS acquisition also ticked the box for reinvesting the proceeds from the disposal of Astir, as stipulated in the terms of the €100m bond IDH issued in Dec'23. Importantly, the aforementioned transaction does not exhaust the group’s war chest, especially as the latter is set to be further bolstered by the upcoming €48m capital increase. We estimate that post the c€100m inflow from OHA Group (for a 25% stake in the corporate entity controlling IDH’s three core divisions) and the capital increase, the parent company maintains significant financial flexibility, standing on a net cash position (or small net debt post dividend payments). This, coupled with available credit lines of €120m and OHA’s committed investment firepower (and M&A expertise), provide plenty of headroom for future capital deployment in value-accretive transactions.
Valuation – We recalibrate our model to reflect latest development (BBS acquisition, OHA participation, internal restructuring in IT, addition of Bluestream). We continue to base our valuation on a SOTP of the 3 segments to which we apply a 10% holding discount, coming up with an indicative baseline fair value near €8.0/share, post-money for the upcoming c€48m capital increase (via the issuance of c8m new shares). In pro-forma terms (incl. a full year for Barba Stathis in 2025) this values IDH at c10.0x 2025e EV/EBITDA, justified in our view by the 2-digit growth and cash generative characteristics of the group’s subsidiaries, along with the c29% exposure to the secular digitization theme. Flexing our WACC and perpetuity growth inputs by 0.5% yields a fair value range between €7.1 and €9.1/share.
Ideal Group SA is a Greece-based company engaged in the trade of high technology products and services. The Company's main activities are representation, distribution and support of high technology products; office automation solutions; provision of computer security solutions through collaborations with international manufacturers, such as VeriSign and Check Point; integrated business information technology (IT) solutions using tools like business intelligence and content management, and the provision of equipment and integrated solutions for customer support. IDEAL Group S.A. has four main subsidiaries: IDEAL Electronics, which represents and distributes Toshiba IT products, including notebooks, projectors and peripherals; My Multi Shop SA supplies Bizerba and Toshiba office automation products; Adacom is a provider of digital security services, and IDEAL Systems is engaged in the provision of integrated software solutions based on Unix and Wintel systems and after sale support.
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