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Motodynamics | From Acceleration to Cruise Control

Normalized top-line growth, margin pressure but on solid ground – Motodynamics acts as the exclusive distributor for Yamaha in Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria, as well as Porsche in Greece, while also operating the SIXT rent-a-car (RaC) franchise. Supported by strong domestic macro trends and continued growth in Greek tourism, the group delivered 15.7% revenue CAGR over 2019-24. That said, the pace is now set to moderate as post-COVID supply chains normalise and market volumes begin to settle. Against this backdrop, we have fine-tuned our forecasts lowering our FY25e, now expecting revenue growth of 7.2% and EBIT of €17.6m (+7.6% yoy), the latter c€2.4m lower than our previous estimates. Further out, we have lowered our 2026–27e topline projections to account for softer volumes and persistent price/mix headwinds, with EBIT revised down by €2.7m in 2026e and €3.5m in 2027e, albeit still implying growth of c8-11% respectively. We expect EBIT margins to expand modestly to 8.4% in 2025e reaching c9% by 2027e. With the shares already pricing in a rather cautious scenario, we reiterate our Buy rating, trimming our TP to €3.50/share, as the aforementioned downward revision in estimates is partially offset by reduced capex assumptions.

Broadening the footprint across core verticals – In 2025, the group is broadening its footprint across the auto, marine, and mobility segments, aiming to strengthen its market position and drive volumes. Key initiatives include the launch of FLIZZR brand in car rental; the rollout of Toyota retail operations, the upcoming addition of Nio and Firefly (currently not included in our estimates), and a new exclusive distribution agreement with Torqeedo, the global leader in electric outboard motors.

FY’24: top line strength, margin squeeze – FY’24 revenue increased 15.3% yoy driven primarily by higher volumes in Yamaha and Porsche. However, EBIT came in at €16.4m (-7.4% yoy), missing our estimates by c€2.7m, as profitability was weighed down by pricing pressures—mainly in the Porsche and Sixt segments—and a €0.8m fine imposed following a tax audit on subsidiary Lion Rental for FY 2018. At the bottom line, group net profit declined by c€2m to €9.7m, impacted by elevated interest expenses.

Healthy balance sheet; lower fleet capex ahead; FCF inflection – Despite deploying c€87m in fleet capex since 2019, the group has expanded without materially stretching its balance sheet, with net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x in 2024. More importantly, the elevated investment cycle appears to be nearing completion, as MOTO pivots its Sixt strategy toward consolidation in existing locations and operational streamlining. As such, we have lowered our capex assumptions, to an average of c€18.5m p.a. over 2025–28e (vs c€20m previously), which sets the stage for a FCF inflection point in 2025.

Valuation – Moto’s share price has remained little-changed YtD, underperforming its international peers which have rebounded over the past 3 months (partly spurred by Pershing Square’s high-profile entry into Hertz). That said, sentiment across the broader mobility sector remains subdued amid signs of intensifying competition, particularly from the growing footprint of cost-advantaged Chinese brands. Valuation-wise, the stock continues to trade at c4x 2025e, a level we feel skews the risk to the upside. Our revised PT values MOTO at 4.8x 2025e EV/EBITDA, close to the current valuation of its peers.