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Motodynamics | Powered for the long haul: New drivers, solid ground

Normalized top-line growth, margin pressure but on solid ground – Following the solid 9M’25 performance, which offers good visibility on full-year trends, we have fine-tuned our forecasts, modestly lifting our revenue outlook but trimming our profitability expectations. For 2025e, we now expect revenues of €214.8mn (+9.6% yoy), with the €5–15mn uplift over 2025–27e driven primarily by the ramp-up of Toyota and NIO in an otherwise normalizing market. On the earnings side, however, we forecast EBIT of €16.4mn for 2025e, broadly unchanged yoy and c€1.2mn below our prior estimate, as a less favorable mix, lower fleet sales, and one-off NIO launch costs weigh on margins. As these factors also extend into 2026–27e, we have revised our EBIT forecasts down by c€1.5mn. That said, our EBIT estimates still imply c10% annual growth over 2026–27e, with margins gradually expanding from 7.6% in 2025e to c8.0% by 2027e. We have also adopted a more measured investment approach for SIXT’s fleet, consistent with management’s focus on consolidation across existing locations. This results in significantly lower medium-term fleet capex vs our prior assumptions, which offsets the small earnings downgrade within our valuation framework. With the shares already pricing in a cautious scenario, we reiterate our Buy rating, with a new PT of €3.70.

Broadening the footprint across core verticals; longer term growth profile – Motodynamics enters 2025–26 with a broader and more scalable commercial platform, adding growth drivers across automotive and mobility. The Toyota retail rollout has started stronger than expected and complements Porsche’s ongoing outperformance, while the introduction of NIO and Firefly provides exposure to both premium and mass-market EVs, supported by differentiated battery-swap technology. At the same time, FLIZZR enhances the Group’s position in leisure mobility through a capex-light model built on retained Sixt vehicles.

Healthy balance sheet, abating capital intensity, 2026e FCF inflection – Despite sizeable fleet investments since 2019, Motodynamics has expanded without materially stretching its balance sheet, with net debt/EBITDA at 1.9x in 2025e. The investment cycle is set to peak in 2025, as the Sixt strategy shifts toward consolidation of the existing network and greater use of retained vehicles to support FLIZZR. Following c€25mn of net fleet capex in 2025e (also shaped by lower fleet disposals), we now envisage an average c€13m annual investment in the medium term (vs c€18mn eyed before). This sets the stage for a clear FCF inflection from 2026, driven by lighter fleet investments and stable working-capital needs. Against this background, leverage is also poised to improve further, with net debt/EBITDA trending toward c1.2x by 2028e.

Valuation – Moto’s share price has remained little-changed YtD, continuing to lag international peers, which have rerated over recent months. At c4.1x 2026e EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of c4.4x–4.7x, the current valuation still skews the risk to the upside. Our new PT of €3.7/share (predicated on a DCF at 10.2% WACC) places the stock at 5.0x 2026e EV/EBITDA, broadly in line with the peer group. Upside is anchored in the scaling of Toyota, NIO and FLIZZR, together with a structurally lower capex profile and a strengthening long-term FCF outlook.