Noval Property | Smart Land, Light Debt, Long Runway, 2-digit total return
High yield, diversified portfolio with green flavor – Noval Property (NP) is Greece's 3rd largest REIC with a current GAV of €648m, comprising 61 assets (of which 31 income-producing). Annualized rental income stands at c€34m, translating to c7.3% yield (on income-generating assets). Noval has a well-balanced sector exposure across office buildings (c28% of rental income), retail (c50%), hospitality (c10%), industrial/logistics (c8%), while its properties boast top-notch tenants and high occupancy (98.7%), incorporating long-term leases (9 years weighted average unexpired lease term -WAULT) with inflation-indexed rents. The portfolio has an interesting “environmental” angle, with green-certified assets representing c22% of total GAV.€340m pipeline leveraging on landbank – NP is executing a €340mn investment plan over 2024-2030 (€291m remaining), with a strong focus on offices (30% of capex). Of this envelope, €280mn is allocated to the development of existing assets (primarily repurposed former industrial properties) while €60mn is earmarked for acquiring income-generating assets. A key competitive edge for Noval is its captive pipeline, as its extensive landbank enables value creation without the risk of overpaying for acquisitions. The pipeline corresponds to additional income of c€20m by 2030 on our estimates, accounting for c60% of total rental growth by then, with the remainder stemming from CPI indexation, rent reviews and new leases. Overall, we foresee c11% rental CAGR over 2024-30e, with further optionality stemming from turnover rent provisions embedded in retail and hotel properties contracts.
Low leverage as firepower for portfolio growth; c4% NAV CAGR through to 2030 – NP looks well positioned to finance its investment plan, supported by strong financial flexibility. Net LTV stands at just 22%—well below the c40% EU avg—with average cost of debt 40%), assuming a “normal” cost of equity environment. Our PT applies a c20% discount to 2025e adj. NAV (excl. revaluations)—slightly above the cross-cycle average discount for the EU RE sector (c15%), but modestly below current EU sector levels reflecting Greece’s more supportive market backdrop and the quality of NP’s NAV composition. This results in a PT of €3.35/share and we thus initiate with a Buy rating.
Eurobank Equities is a Greek-based firm offering research, sales and trading services to institutional, corporate and private clients. The company is wholly owned by Eurobank, one of the 4 systemic banks in Greece.
Research is the backbone of Eurobank Equities' platform, with a team of 4 professionals committed to generating actionable investment ideas by providing timely research products. We are committed to offering value-added services to clients by filtering market noise and providing insights on the multiple sectors that we cover. Our universe includes 26 - large, medium and small cap - companies whose market capitalization amounts to 80-85% of the total market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange. Our research team also maintains the capacity to generate ad-hoc research for micro-cap listed companies.
Our team has consistently gained recognition among institutional investors for its quality research, having ranked No. 1 team in Greece at the Extel Surveys of 2013-2016 and 2018. We have also been named Leading Brokerage Firm in Greece over 2014-2016 and in 2018.
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