Noval Property | Smart Land, Light Debt, Long Runway, 2-digit total return
High yield, diversified portfolio with green flavor – Noval Property (NP) is Greece's 3rd largest REIC with a current GAV of €648m, comprising 61 assets (of which 31 income-producing). Annualized rental income stands at c€34m, translating to c7.3% yield (on income-generating assets). Noval has a well-balanced sector exposure across office buildings (c28% of rental income), retail (c50%), hospitality (c10%), industrial/logistics (c8%), while its properties boast top-notch tenants and high occupancy (98.7%), incorporating long-term leases (9 years weighted average unexpired lease term -WAULT) with inflation-indexed rents. The portfolio has an interesting “environmental” angle, with green-certified assets representing c22% of total GAV.€340m pipeline leveraging on landbank – NP is executing a €340mn investment plan over 2024-2030 (€291m remaining), with a strong focus on offices (30% of capex). Of this envelope, €280mn is allocated to the development of existing assets (primarily repurposed former industrial properties) while €60mn is earmarked for acquiring income-generating assets. A key competitive edge for Noval is its captive pipeline, as its extensive landbank enables value creation without the risk of overpaying for acquisitions. The pipeline corresponds to additional income of c€20m by 2030 on our estimates, accounting for c60% of total rental growth by then, with the remainder stemming from CPI indexation, rent reviews and new leases. Overall, we foresee c11% rental CAGR over 2024-30e, with further optionality stemming from turnover rent provisions embedded in retail and hotel properties contracts.
Low leverage as firepower for portfolio growth; c4% NAV CAGR through to 2030 – NP looks well positioned to finance its investment plan, supported by strong financial flexibility. Net LTV stands at just 22%—well below the c40% EU avg—with average cost of debt 40%), assuming a “normal” cost of equity environment. Our PT applies a c20% discount to 2025e adj. NAV (excl. revaluations)—slightly above the cross-cycle average discount for the EU RE sector (c15%), but modestly below current EU sector levels reflecting Greece’s more supportive market backdrop and the quality of NP’s NAV composition. This results in a PT of €3.35/share and we thus initiate with a Buy rating.
Eurobank Equities is a Greek-based firm offering research, sales and trading services to institutional, corporate and private clients. The company is wholly owned by Eurobank, one of the 4 systemic banks in Greece.
Eurobank Equities S.A. offers a comprehensive suite of investment products—including equities, derivatives, bonds, and mutual funds—serving over 15,000 private, corporate, and institutional clients in Greece and internationally.
The firm maintains a dominant position in the Greek capital markets, consistently ranking among the top brokers in terms of market share and is repeatedly recognised in major institutional investor surveys as one of the leading brokers and top Equity Research Providers for Greece.
Its multi-awarded Research Division delivers timely insights and fundamental coverage on almost 40 listed companies—representing over 90% of the ATHEX’s market capitalisation and traded value.
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