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Research study (Initial Coverage) englisch - UmweltBank AG

Capital increase significantly improves equity base, laying the foundation for higher earnings and improved results

With its latest capital increase, UmweltBank AG generated gross issue proceeds of €20.66 million. The newly raised equity capital is to be used for the further expansion of the lending business, with the focus on strengthening the equity base. After applying CRR III, the equity ratio as at 30 June 2025 was 15.9%, leaving only a small buffer above the regulatory requirement of 15.6%. With risk-weighted assets (RWA) remaining unchanged, the equity ratio is likely to have risen to 16.6% following the capital increase, resulting in a higher buffer against the capital requirement.

UmweltBank AG's current strategy is to improve its risk profile while simultaneously increasing profitability. The focus here is on growth in customer deposits, which can be invested at low risk with the ECB at a maturity-matched interest margin of 100 bps to130 bps. Customer deposits, which stood at around €3.9 billion as at 30 June 2025, are expected to rise to €5.9 billion by 2028. The green current account introduced in July 2025 is expected to make a significant contribution to this. The planned introduction of investment advice and targeted marketing measures are also expected to contribute to the planned customer growth.

The planned reduction in shareholdings, most of which are to be sold by the end of 2026, is also expected to contribute to improving risk. As capital requirements have increased due to higher risk weighting, particularly following the application of CRR III, the reduction in investments is expected to further improve the capital ratio. In addition, the funds freed up can be used to expand the lending busine

UmweltBank AG's lending business recently suffered from low equity buffers and declined slightly despite high demand. According to the company's plan, the lending volume is expected to increase to up to €4.0 billion by 2028 (30 June 2025: €3.2 billion). This will be based on the funds freed up from the sale of investments and the improvement in equity as a result of the expected positive annual results. In addition, capital is also to be conserved by expanding the syndicated loan business, which has lower equity backing requirements.

With the publication of the half-year figures for 2025, the management of UmweltBank AG confirmed its earnings forecast for the 2025 financial year. According to this, pre-tax earnings of between €5 million and €10 million are expected. For 2025 as a whole, a further increase in net interest income to between €60 million and €65 million, net financial income to between €18 million and €20 million, and net commission and trading income to between €7 million and €11 million is expected. However, this is offset by further risk provisions in the range of €10 million to €15 million.

The focus is particularly on the expected increase in net interest income, which is based on a planned expansion of the deposit business. By the end of 2025, this is expected to grow significantly to €4.3 billion (as at 30 June 2025: €3.5 billion). The ‘UmweltGiro’ current account introduced in June 2025, which is expected to attract a large number of new customers, is expected to play a significant role in this. Also worth mentioning is the termination of the Bafin special representative's activities. Although the capital requirements will remain in place for the time being, they could be reduced in the future, which should have a positive effect on lending.

By the end of our forecast period (2027e), we expect net interest income to rise further to €85.35 million. While net financial income is likely to become less significant following the sale of the majority of the investments, we expect net commission and trading income to increase to €11.24 million by the 2027 financial year. This development is particularly related to expected bond and ETF issues and the planned expansion of the fund business. With only a disproportionately low increase in costs, we expect pre-tax profit to improve to €9.37 million (2025e), followed by €16.11 million (2026e) and €24.18 million (2027e). After two suspensions of dividend payments, a dividend is to be paid again for the current 2025 financial year.

We have valued UmweltBank AG using a residual income model. The sum of the discounted residual income results in a value of €392.39 million (previously: €375.04 million). The recent capital increase, which led to an increase in equity of €20.66 million, is responsible for the increase in the fair enterprise value. However, as this is now spread across 41.28 million shares (previously: 36.06 million shares), the fair enterprise value per share of €9.50 (previously: €10.40) is below the pre-money value. This is understandable, as the capital increase was carried out at a subscription price of €4.00 per share, which is accompanied by a dilution effect compared to the previously determined fair value per share. We continue to assign a ‘BUY’ rating.