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Globe Trade Centre: Buy on price weakness

We stay positive on GTC and perceive the recent drop in its stock price (-4% in 2M; 2% below the mWIG40) as a good buying opportunity. After incorporating the changes to the firm’s pipeline projects’ realization schedule and factoring in the recent acquisition of income-generating properties in Belgrade and Bucharest, as well a more optimistic view on the revaluation of the firm’s standing assets in HU this year, we raise our NI estimates by 14%/47% for 17E/19E, while cutting by 9% for 18E. This means we now expect it to grow by 28% y/y in 17E (when 16A figure is adjusted for one-offs), before only a moderate 16% y/y decline in 18E and another 23% y/y increase in 19E. Moreover, factoring in GTC’s established income-generating property platform, rich expansion plans and healthy b/sheet, we expect it to be able to offer an attractive mix of solid NAV growth (16-19E CAGR of 11%), well ahead of covered peers, and a double-digit y/y increase in dividends in the period. On top of that, we believe forecast dividend payments do not rule out further potential value accretive property acquisitions. As a result of the changes mentioned above and given a deduction for the dividend paid this year, our FV for GTC edges up 0.9% to PLN 10.70ps. This implies 14.4% upside and we maintain a Buy rating.