Supply has re-emerged as a key theme to start the year, while sentiment has been mixed amid renewed volatility in core rates. In this environment, we would prefer to be positioned in higher-quality names that have either issued already or shown spread weakness in anticipation of supply.
EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • LPP: historically highest quarterly profits, FY24E guidance in line with our expectations POSITIVE • CEZ: investment plans for Melnik heating plant NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: progress on EU dispute • Germany macro: political agreement on 2024 budget confirms tightening fiscal stance • Polish utilities: decision on NABE to be taken after audit, according to new minister NEUTRAL • GTC: erratum (share transfer between Optima and Icona yet to take place)
HEADLINES: • GTC: Icona transfers 16% stake in GTC to Optima • CEZ: receives EUR 308m from Modernization Fund for Melnik, reportedly • DIGI Communications: acquires 60MHz of spectrum in the 1800MHz, 2100MHz and 3,500MHz bands POSITIVE • DIGI Communications: in talks to sell its EUR 1bn Spanish fibre network, reportedly POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: signs drilling agreement and secures more than 80% of contracting for Neptun Deep NEUTRAL
GTC has announced that Icona and Optima have agreed that Icona will transfer the 16% stake it owns in GTC to Optima, from which it bought the stake originally in early-2022. This should not change GTC’s strategy, as the two parties acted in concert, and Optima held the voting rights for the stake all along. We welcome the decision of GTC’s new management, not to pursue the Ultima acquisition, announced in November. Going forward, we see securing the funds to use to repay the 2026E EUR 500m bond ...
HEADLINES: • GTC: 3Q23 - decides not to pursue Ultima deal POSITIVE • Dom Development: 3Q23 in line, management concerns about the sustainability of subsidised mortgages NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 9M23 trading update sees continued growth in footfall and average spend per visit POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - staying the course, covering ground • Romgaz: 3Q23 conference call takeaways • Patria Bank: 3Q23 results - we...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 2Q23 in line with our forecasts, slightly above consensus; sound short-term guidance NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 2Q23 in line with preliminary figures; gross margin down 2.5ppts yoy NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 2Q23 - even stronger pricing than last year, cost increases contained POSITIVE • Eurowag: 1H net revenues in line, but earnings quality below expectations NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: initial thoughts on the MTP and Simsek presentation • DataWalk: key takeaways from the 2Q2...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: green yields (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: posts solid 2Q23 results • Orlen: 2Q23 results • CA Immo: 2Q23 - FFO picks up pace qoq, EUR 543m of disposals at 38% premium to book closed ytd POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 2Q23 weakness resulted mostly from FX impact, no fundamental changes in the business POSITIVE • GTC: 2Q23 - recurring in line, books 2% write-down on portfolio, driven mostly by Polish assets NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: 21% beat vs. our net profi...
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: M&A as the next stage of growth (HOLD - transfer of coverage) • OMV Petrom: takes FID for Neptun Deep and, together with Romgaz, has approved the development plan POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB cuts by 100bp - no surprises • Mo-BRUK: 2023E capacity utilisation in RDF production should be at least at last year's levels NEUTRAL • InPost: payment solutions launched POSITIVE • GTC: we believe that GTC should walk away from the Ultima deal
We take a negative view of the proposed Ultima deal. In our view, it is risky, it further complicates the investment case, and it could potentially dilute GTC’s minority shareholders materially. The related-party transaction also looks problematic from a corporate governance perspective. We have not been convinced by the management’s arguments that were presented as justification for such a transformational acquisition, at least up until this point. We believe, instead, that GTC should focus on:...
HEADLINES: • GTC: takeaways from the management call with investors on the Ultima purchase NEGATIVE • Richter: Minister reiterates WFT rate cut plus R&D write-off NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO POSITIVE • Electrica: has attracted EUR 57m of non-reimbursable financing through the Modernisation Fund NEUTRAL • Alpha Bank: completion of Project Sky and issuance of senior preferred notes • Short news (TEL)
HEADLINES: • Lamda Development: a bet on the transformation of Athens (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PCF Group: non-binding term sheet regarding new VR game for USD 16-24m POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to spend PLN 680m on FX mortgage saga in 2Q23E NEUTRAL • Transgaz: signs order to begin construction of pipeline linking Black Sea to BRUA NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: announces signing of a binding offer to acquire 40% of Devoteam Middle East POSITIVE • GTC: considering entry into European luxur...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 1Q23 results review - EBITDA up 72% yoy, 32% above the consensus POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 1Q23 EBITDA limited 4% above our forecast, greater beat to the consensus NEUTRAL • PCF Group: earnings call takeaways - ongoing work-for-hire negotiations relate to a new project POSITIVE • Hungary macro: European parliament motion to suspend Hungary's presidency in 2024 • Poland macro: Lex Tusk - what it is and why it matters • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 May) ...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: posts solid 1Q23 figures, with small beat vs. our ambitious expectations NEUTRAL • GTC: 4Q22 - EUR 41m revaluation loss and FY FFO of EUR 68m both spot on our estimates NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 1Q23 summary • Bank Pekao / mBank / Bank Handlowy: receive resolution charge decision from BFG NEUTRAL
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