Daily Insight -- Hryvnia near 25.5 USD/UAH
The hryvnia appreciated 0.1% against the USD to 25.5158 USD/UAH. Friday's 0.6% drop of the USD bolstered EM currencies, including the hryvnia. Moreover, August taxes began on Monday, which increased exporters' demand for hryvnia. The UAH sold for 25.41 USD/UAH versus 25.59 to buy in the Ukrainian cash market. The hryvnia's CPI-based real trade-weighted index fell 0.02% to 108.64; in year-on-year terms, it is up 10.91% from 97.95 last year. The steadily rising trade-weighted index of the hryvnia means that the future depreciation of the currency is more likely than extended appreciation. Consequently, we expect some weakness in hryvnia in early September, as temporary factors (such as taxes) will stop supporting the Ukrainian currency while the US dollar provides essential support.
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