reports
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- MoF to scale up placement of reserve bonds
This week, the Ministry of Finance will hold a swap auction to exchange reserve bonds, the third one since the beginning of the year. Last week, the MoF borrowed UAH19.6bn via sale of military, regular, reserve, and USD-denominated bonds. Reserve securities accounted for more than a quarter of total funds raised.
- Research Team
Macro Insight: Reparation Loan is a Likely Game Changer for Economy
The lingering war and heightened safety risks imply Ukraine will remain critically dependent on foreign financial aid for its defense efforts and macroeconomic stability. A new IMF program would be of little help if not funded properly. Fortunately, the EU started serious discussions about an EUR140bn reparation loan for Ukraine linked to russian frozen assets. The Ukrainian authorities believe the loan approval is highly likely and only the timeline is uncertain. Should the loan be stamped, Ukr...
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Monthly C/A gap narrows in August
The monthly current account (C/A) deficit narrowed to US$3.1bn from a record high of US$4.2bn in July. The trade-of-goods deficit saw an improvement on a decline in imports vs July, but still remained large at US$4.1bn taking the 8M25 result to US$30.4bn from US$20.2bn in 8M24.
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU reserves get boost in August
The gross international reserves of the NBU surged 7.0% in August and 5.1% in 8m25 to US$46.0bn. Ukraine received a sizeable amount of foreign financial aid over the month, including $4.7bn via Ukraine Facility and ERA program and $1.1bn from the World Bank, which boosted NBU reserves.
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- C/A deficit record high in July
Monthly current account (C/A) deficit exceeded US$4.1bn in July, the level seen first time ever. The surging trade-in-goods deficit (US$4.4bn in July and US$42bn over 12-month period) was the key culprit behind the record high C/A gap. Export of goods remain suppressed with only marginal 3% growth YoY in July while imports surged 20% with significant growth seen across the board.
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU strengthens hryvnia further
The NBU strengthened the hryvnia again last week, while decreasing its FX interventions on the back of narrower FX market shortage. The hryvnia appreciated to UAH41.22/US$ last Thursday, the strongest level since April, and an official exchange rate ended last week at UAH41.28/US$.
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: A Race to Secure More Budget Funding for 2...
Economic growth to remain slow as the economy will struggle to increase the stock of available resources, capital and labor, in the near future. The recovery will be supported by private consumption on the back of surging incomes in the private sector. Meanwhile, government consumption will remain a drag due to a gradual fiscal consolidation. Additionally, lower-than-expected harvest prompts a downgrade in our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5%. The key near-term challenge for the government i...
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.