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Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU keeps key rate unchanged at 15%

The regulator maintained the key policy rate at 15.0%, postponing further monetary easing amid risks of intensifying inflationary pressures and deteriorating inflation expectations.

03/23/26 March 23, 2026 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Consumer prices accelerate unexpectedly

Annual headline CPI climbed to 7.6% in February from 7.4% in January. The pick up in CPI primarily came on the back of food as food prices accelerated to 9.7% in February from 9.5% a month before. Within the food category, fruits and vegetables were the key contributors to higher prices.

03/16/26 March 16, 2026 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU reserves down 5% in February

The gross international reserves of the NBU decreased 5% in February to US$54.8bn, an equivalent of 5.7 months of future import as per NBU estimates.

03/09/26 March 9, 2026 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- IMF approves new EFF program

The IMF executive board approved a new four-year EFF loan for Ukraine for US$8.1bn, with US$1.5bn to be disbursed immediately.

03/02/26 March 2, 2026 4 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- MoF cuts maturity premium

The Ministry of Finance made yet more steps to lower yields on UAH bonds, while also significantly slashing the maturity premium.

02/23/26 February 23, 2026 4 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Disinflation trend robust

Annual headline CPI slowed to 7.4% in January from 8.0% in December. Disinflation was visible across the majority of consumer basket categories with the steepest deceleration seen for communication services (7.1% YoY vs. 12.0% in December) and health services (4.7% vs. 6.0%).

02/16/26 February 16, 2026 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU reserves inch up 1% in January

Gross international reserves of the NBU were up 0.6% in January to US$57.7bn, an equivalent of 6.0 months of future imports as per NBU estimates.

02/09/26 February 9, 2026 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Macro Insight: Growth Weak but Macroeconomic Stability Safeguarded

The economy is set to slow further as headwinds remain intense. The energy crisis caused by russia’s terror attacks on civil infrastructure is interrupting production cycles in many sectors and damaging consumer sentiment. If safety risks don’t subside dramatically in 2026 – which is our conservative baseline assumption – the economy will struggle to grow. Nonetheless, the continued inflows of foreign financial aid imply the economy will remain on a footing that is sufficiently strong and risks ...

02/06/26 February 6, 2026 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU starts easing cycle

The regulator lowered the key policy rate by 50 bps to 15.0%, initiating a cycle of monetary easing against a backdrop of declining inflation and secured external financing.

02/02/26 February 2, 2026 8 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- MoF pushes yields down

For the first time in almost 10 months, the Ministry of Finance made a move towards lower bond yields in anticipation of the NBU's cut in the key policy rate.

01/26/26 January 26, 2026 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Retail demand for UAH bonds robust

As of today, households’ total investments in domestic government bonds reached UAH117bn (US$2.7bn). Retail investors now account for 9% of the total stock of government bonds outstanding, excluding NBU’s portfolio.

01/19/26 January 19, 2026 4 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Inflation falls sharply in 2025

Annual CPI slowed to 8.0% in December vs. 9.3% in November and a peak of 15.9% in May.

01/12/26 January 12, 2026 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU hikes interventions

The National Bank of Ukraine hiked its FX interventions to nearly the maximum level this year and kept the hryvnia exchange rate broadly unchanged by the end of the week.

12/22/25 December 22, 2025 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU keeps key rate unchanged at 15.5%

The regulator will maintain this rate at least until the January 29 meeting, citing uncertainty over external financing for 2026-2027 as the primary reason for postponing monetary easing.

12/15/25 December 15, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Parliament approves 2026 state budget

The Ukrainian parliament approved the 2026 state budget last week. The deficit is planned at UAH1.9trn, an equivalent of US$46bn at the current exchange rate, or 19% of GDP.

12/08/25 December 8, 2025 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU widens hryvnia volatility range

In late autumn, the National Bank further widened the band of hryvnia fluctuations compared with September and October, and even briefly weakened the hryvnia below its January lows.

12/01/25 December 1, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Annual CPI on a steep downward trend

Annual CPI slowed to 10.9% in October from 11.9% in September and a peak of 15.9% in May. Core CPI was down to 10.2% from 11.0% in September.

11/18/25 November 18, 2025 4 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Parties exit VRI restructuring talks

At the end of last week, negotiations between the Ministry of Finance and the ad hoc committee of VRI holders ended without a deal. However, the parties signalled that there are good prospects of reaching an agreement in the future.

11/10/25 November 10, 2025 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Trade deficit hits new record high

The monthly current account (C/A) deficit stood at US$3.2bn on a record foreign trade-in-goods gap of US$5.0bn in September. Import of goods hit a record high at US$8.0bn in September (+34% YoY) on surging imports of machinery and equipment. Meanwhile, export was almost unchanged vs last September.

11/03/25 November 3, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU postpones rate cuts

The central bank maintained the key rate at 15.5%, indicating that monetary easing is unlikely before 2026, as inflation risks remain high. The regulator left the rate unchanged and it now expects two 50bp cuts, previously projected for this year, to be postponed.

10/27/25 October 27, 2025 6 EN
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