reports
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- C/A deficit record high in July
Monthly current account (C/A) deficit exceeded US$4.1bn in July, the level seen first time ever. The surging trade-in-goods deficit (US$4.4bn in July and US$42bn over 12-month period) was the key culprit behind the record high C/A gap. Export of goods remain suppressed with only marginal 3% growth YoY in July while imports surged 20% with significant growth seen across the board.
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU strengthens hryvnia further
The NBU strengthened the hryvnia again last week, while decreasing its FX interventions on the back of narrower FX market shortage. The hryvnia appreciated to UAH41.22/US$ last Thursday, the strongest level since April, and an official exchange rate ended last week at UAH41.28/US$.
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: A Race to Secure More Budget Funding for 2...
Economic growth to remain slow as the economy will struggle to increase the stock of available resources, capital and labor, in the near future. The recovery will be supported by private consumption on the back of surging incomes in the private sector. Meanwhile, government consumption will remain a drag due to a gradual fiscal consolidation. Additionally, lower-than-expected harvest prompts a downgrade in our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5%. The key near-term challenge for the government i...
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU reserves surge 10% in April
Gross international reserves of the NBU were up 10.1% in April and 6.6% YTD to US$46.7bn, an all-time high, on generous inflows of foreign financial aid. Specifically, Ukraine received a US$4.9bn loan from the EU within the ERA program and an US$1.3bn facility from the World Bank.
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU holds key rate unchanged at 15.5%
The regulator has paused its tightening cycle and now forecasts a rate cut in September. Despite accelerating inflation, which reached 14.6% YoY in March and some expectations of another hike, the NBU stuck to its earlier plan and refrained from further increases. This marks the end of three consecutive hikes totaling 250bp.
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: Larger Financial Aid Buys More Time for Ec...
Ukraine’s economy has been in a sluggish recovery mode since 3Q24, and chances for a significant near-term acceleration are slim. The need to cut the fiscal deficit and budget expenditures will significantly restrain GDP growth going forward. We see economic growth close to 3% this year and next, supported by recovery in household consumption and higher agricultural output. Inflation is set to start decelerating rapidly from June on last year’s high base and larger supply of agricultural har...
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