reports
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: A Race to Secure More Budget Funding for 2...
Economic growth to remain slow as the economy will struggle to increase the stock of available resources, capital and labor, in the near future. The recovery will be supported by private consumption on the back of surging incomes in the private sector. Meanwhile, government consumption will remain a drag due to a gradual fiscal consolidation. Additionally, lower-than-expected harvest prompts a downgrade in our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5%. The key near-term challenge for the government i...
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU reserves surge 10% in April
Gross international reserves of the NBU were up 10.1% in April and 6.6% YTD to US$46.7bn, an all-time high, on generous inflows of foreign financial aid. Specifically, Ukraine received a US$4.9bn loan from the EU within the ERA program and an US$1.3bn facility from the World Bank.
- Research Team
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU holds key rate unchanged at 15.5%
The regulator has paused its tightening cycle and now forecasts a rate cut in September. Despite accelerating inflation, which reached 14.6% YoY in March and some expectations of another hike, the NBU stuck to its earlier plan and refrained from further increases. This marks the end of three consecutive hikes totaling 250bp.
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: Larger Financial Aid Buys More Time for Ec...
Ukraine’s economy has been in a sluggish recovery mode since 3Q24, and chances for a significant near-term acceleration are slim. The need to cut the fiscal deficit and budget expenditures will significantly restrain GDP growth going forward. We see economic growth close to 3% this year and next, supported by recovery in household consumption and higher agricultural output. Inflation is set to start decelerating rapidly from June on last year’s high base and larger supply of agricultural har...
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- IMF increases foreign aid assumptions
On Friday, the IMF board approved the 7th review of the EFF program for Ukraine, which opens the way for a $0.4bn loan tranche. The IMF memorandum revealed that Ukraine expects more financial aid than previously planned. The IMF revised some of the key macroeconomic indicators and, most important, assumptions about the size of foreign financial aid that Ukraine is going to receive over the period of the EFF program.
- Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Monthly inflation slows markedly in February
Consumer inflation slowed to 0.8% MoM in February and marked the third month of steep deceleration from 1.9% MoM in November. Annual headline inflation was up to 13.4% from 12.9% in January while core CPI increased to 12.0% YoY from 11.7% a month before. Food prices accelerated to 15.0% YoY after growth rate remained nearly flat at 14.1-14.4% over the previous three months. Other commodity groups that saw significant price acceleration are alcohol and tobacco (up to 14.9% from 14.2%), transpo...
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- NBU raises key rate, signals cautious approach
The key monetary policy rate was increased by 100 bps to 15.5%, marking the third consecutive hike. The NBU continues to emphasize uncertainty in the inflation trajectory and external funding flows, signalling a cautious stance on future monetary policy adjustments. In addition to this increase, the regulator has adjusted the operational framework parameters of its interest rate policy. The interest rate on three-month deposits was raised by 200 bps, while the maximum volume of such instru...
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Ukraine and IMF complete 7th program review
Last Friday, the IMF and Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement on the seventh review of the EFF arrangement. Following approval of the IMF Board, Ukraine will receive a US$0.4bn loan tranche bringing total disbursement to US$10.1bn out of US$15.5bn earmarked under the program.
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