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Macro Review-Gradual Reopening; Shaky Outlook

Economy starts to reopen after two months of strict lockdown. So far, Ukraine's pace of reopening has been gradual, although it is faster than what was expected a month ago. This gives hope for economic recovery through the restart of frozen activities: transport, trade, catering and recreation, and so on. However, in our opinion, losses during the lockdown and the remaining restrictions related to social distancing, along with other factors, will lead to a lower level of potential output after the economy is reopened, slower potential growth compared with the pre-lockdown period, and subdued domestic demand both inside the country and abroad.