ICU - Macro Review-Heading into 2020 with Confidence

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ICU

Research Team

Macro Review-Heading into 2020 with Confidence

Ukraine is heading into 2020 with confidence, as its macroeconomic situation is as good as it gets under current circumstances: GDP real growth is staying within the 3-4% range, Debt/GDP ratio is poised to decline below 50%, the current-account deficit as a percentage of GDP contracts to the relatively safe 3% level, and the hryvnia has become the world's top performer versus USD this year. In 2020, the external environment may appear more challenging, with higher risks stemming from global-economy slowdown and trade wars. The IMF programme is far from being a done deal considering uncertainties with banking-sector reforms. Nevertheless, investors are still giving the Ukrainian investment case the benefit of the doubt as Ukraine's sovereign and domestic UAH-denominated paper offer attractive pricing amidst the ongoing global hunt for yields.

20/12/2019 19 EN

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ICU

ICU IS A FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP PROVIDING SECURITIES TRADING, INVESTMENT BANKING AND ASSET MANAGEMENT FOR PRIVATE AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.

More information about ICU you can find at https://www.icu.ua/

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Analysts

Research Team

Other Reports from ICU

Taras Kotovych

Taras Kotovych

Bond Market Insight -- Bond market waits for NBU to cut rates

Yesterday's auction received UAH9.4bn of demand, mainly for 12-month bills, but also strong demand for two- and three-year securities. Proceeds for the state budget amounted to almost UAH7.6bn. The MoF decreased interest rates for 12-month paper only.

April 24, 2024 April 24, 2024 4 EN

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk

Macro Update -- Macro Risks Remain Manageable

The resilience of Ukraine’s economy to unprecedented external shocks remains beyond any doubt. The economy continues to grow in 2024 at a reasonable pace and massive destruction of the country’s energy infrastructure will only slow, but not disrupt, the recovery. Ukraine’s largest economic achievement of the past quarters is the launch of a fully functioning Black Sea cargo corridor that made it possible to export a wide range of commodities. The biggest positive surprise of 1Q24 was a sharp slowdown of inflation that reached 3.2% in March. Low CPI combined with a stable FX market implies sign...

April 23, 2024 April 23, 2024 9 EN

Taras Kotovych

Taras Kotovych

Weekly Insight -- NBU does not prevent hryvnia weakening

Last week, hryvnia continued to weaken even though NBU FX interventions were the largest since the beginning of January.The NBU sold US$695m from international reserves last week, the largest volume of interventions in more than three months (a larger amount, US$790m, was last sold in the first week of the year). We estimate the largest volume, approximately US$215m (nearly a third of the weekly volume), was sold last Friday.

April 22, 2024 April 22, 2024 7 EN

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Macro Review-Heading into 2020 with Confidence

Bond Market Insight -- Bond market waits for NBU to cut rates

Macro Update -- Macro Risks Remain Manageable

Weekly Insight -- NBU does not prevent hryvnia weakening

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