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Macro Review-Macro Insight: Economy Under Lockdown

Coronavirus pandemic and lockdown will cause sharp recession. Fighting against the pandemic, Ukrainian authorities introduced quarantine measures that are quite stringent compared with other countries. These measures may become even more restrictive if the pandemic continues to spread. As a result, Ukraine's real GDP may fall 6-8% in 2020 in our most optimistic base-case scenario of a two-month strict containment, with a gradual recovery thereafter. High uncertainties of the quarantine's duration, the economy's reaction to it, the pace of recovery, and the possibility of another wave of the virus make this forecast subject to significant risks tilted to the downside.