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Quarterly Report-Muddling through Election Cycle

IMF: SBA program helps Ukraine to muddle through the election year. IMF approval of the new SBA program significantly raises Ukraine's ability to repay the US$9bn FX debt coming due in 2019. However, even with the $1.2bn external financing available in total from the EU and the guarantees provided by the World Bank, the government will have to refinance 100% of domestically issued FX bonds, and come to the capital markets for $1-2bn Eurobond issuance. The government will have to repay US$8.3bn of domestic FX and local-currency bonds in 2019, including US$5.4bn in 1H19. In case markets are unfavourable, the government will have to ask the IMF to redirect one of the SBA tranches to the state budget. April?May are critical for the government's efforts to secure financing of external debt payments, as they peak at $1.6bn in September.