ICU - Weekly Insight -- Economic activity slowly recovering

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ICU

Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Economic activity slowly recovering

Based on data published last week by UkrStat, we estimate the decline in GDP to slow to 10% YoY in May from 13% YoY in April. Due to the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions, retail trade has largely resumed, and industry performance has improved slightly. At the same time, passenger transport remained almost completely paralyzed, significantly holding back a larger rebound.

01/07/2020 8 EN

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ICU

ICU IS A FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP PROVIDING SECURITIES TRADING, INVESTMENT BANKING AND ASSET MANAGEMENT FOR PRIVATE AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.

More information about ICU you can find at https://www.icu.ua/

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Analysts

Research Team

Other Reports from ICU

Taras Kotovych

Taras Kotovych

Bond Market Insight -- Bond market waits for NBU to cut rates

Yesterday's auction received UAH9.4bn of demand, mainly for 12-month bills, but also strong demand for two- and three-year securities. Proceeds for the state budget amounted to almost UAH7.6bn. The MoF decreased interest rates for 12-month paper only.

April 24, 2024 April 24, 2024 4 EN

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk

Macro Update -- Macro Risks Remain Manageable

The resilience of Ukraine’s economy to unprecedented external shocks remains beyond any doubt. The economy continues to grow in 2024 at a reasonable pace and massive destruction of the country’s energy infrastructure will only slow, but not disrupt, the recovery. Ukraine’s largest economic achievement of the past quarters is the launch of a fully functioning Black Sea cargo corridor that made it possible to export a wide range of commodities. The biggest positive surprise of 1Q24 was a sharp slowdown of inflation that reached 3.2% in March. Low CPI combined with a stable FX market implies sign...

April 23, 2024 April 23, 2024 9 EN

Taras Kotovych

Taras Kotovych

Weekly Insight -- NBU does not prevent hryvnia weakening

Last week, hryvnia continued to weaken even though NBU FX interventions were the largest since the beginning of January.The NBU sold US$695m from international reserves last week, the largest volume of interventions in more than three months (a larger amount, US$790m, was last sold in the first week of the year). We estimate the largest volume, approximately US$215m (nearly a third of the weekly volume), was sold last Friday.

April 22, 2024 April 22, 2024 7 EN

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Weekly Insight -- Economic activity slowly recovering

Bond Market Insight -- Bond market waits for NBU to cut rates

Macro Update -- Macro Risks Remain Manageable

Weekly Insight -- NBU does not prevent hryvnia weakening

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