ICU - Weekly Insight -- Ukraine, IMF complete 6th program review

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ICU

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Weekly Insight -- Ukraine, IMF complete 6th program review

Last week, the IMF announced it reached a staff level agreement on the 6th review of the Extended Fund Facility program. All quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks due for the review have been met.

25/11/2024 7 EN

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ICU

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Last week, the MoF announced the results of its debut attempt to agree the terms of VRI restructuring. The initial offer was rejected by investors.

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Weekly Insight -- NBU holds key rate unchanged at 15.5%

The regulator has paused its tightening cycle and now forecasts a rate cut in September. Despite accelerating inflation, which reached 14.6% YoY in March and some expectations of another hike, the NBU stuck to its earlier plan and refrained from further increases. This marks the end of three consecutive hikes totaling 250bp.

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Ukraine’s economy has been in a sluggish recovery mode since 3Q24, and chances for a significant near-term acceleration are slim. The need to cut the fiscal deficit and budget expenditures will significantly restrain GDP growth going forward. We see economic growth close to 3% this year and next, supported by recovery in household consumption and higher agricultural output. Inflation is set to start decelerating rapidly from June on last year’s high base and larger supply of agricultural harvest. We see good chances of consumer prices slowing to 7-8% at the end of 2025, supported by weaker...

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Weekly Insight -- Ukraine, IMF complete 6th program review

Weekly Insight -- Investors reject MoF's offer on VRI

Weekly Insight -- NBU holds key rate unchanged at 15.5%

Macro Review-Macro Insight: Larger Financial Aid Buys More Time for Economy to Adjust

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