How likely is a U.S. equity market correction?
As the U.S. equity market continues its uptrend, reflecting investor positioning for a regime shift in both the economy and financial markets, a number of analysts have gradually become more skeptical regarding a prolonged continuation of the rally, as policy uncertainty remains elevated, market multiples have been expanding, investor sentiment is buoyant, and interest rates are expected to rise further, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s less dovish stance.
To assess whether equities can prolong their solid performance an econometric model (Probit model) that combines valuation, interest rate and volatility signals is used.
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