One of the longest economic cycles in history or just a series of ‘mini cycles’? Is the notion of the ‘traditional’ business cycle irrelevant?
While numerous economists and strategists have been trying to forecast the end of one of the longest economic expansions on record, a, more or less, radical theory has emerged recently. J.P. Morgan chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas claims that thinking in terms of ‘traditional’ business cycles might not be relevant anymore. At the crux of his theory is that the ongoing cycle is not a typical one, as it is continuously influenced by central bank actions, thus one should not consider the ongoing expansion as a single event, but rather as a series of mini cycles.
The ‘mini cycle’ theory is definitely catchy, but, whether it is a true depiction of reality is another issue…
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