Iniohos Advisory Services - Recession odds have markedly moved up towards worrisome levels

Report

Iniohos Advisory Services

John Galakis ...

Nicolas Skourias

EUR 26.47 For Business Accounts Only

Recession odds have markedly moved up towards worrisome levels

The probability that the U.S. economy’s lengthy expansion will eventually come to an end in 2020 continues to be one of the prevailing themes in financial markets that cause investor concern. Is it warranted? Reality is that numerous U.S. macroeconomic indicators have been trending lower lately.
What is the current probability of an economic recession on a 12-month horizon?

05/03/2019 4 EN

Provider

Iniohos Advisory Services

Iniohos Advisory Services is an independent investment research and consulting house, founded by investment professionals with long and in-depth experience in global financial markets.

Iniohos Advisory Services aims to provide top-end investment solutions to High Net Worth Individuals and institutional investors, ranging from proactive investment research to tailor made financial and risk modelling.

Our research covers the areas of investment and macroeconomic research, investment strategy and asset allocation, financial modelling and risk management.

See profile

Analysts

John Galakis

Nicolas Skourias

Other Reports from Iniohos Advisory Services

John Galakis ... (+2)

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U.S. recession expectations: where do we stand?

At the beginning of the year there was a heated debate among economists and financial analysts on whether the long U.S. economic expansion would finally come to an end this year. A number of predictive models were showing that the probability of recession was rising to levels associated with a significant deceleration of economic activity in the past. As the COVID-19 virus is a tremendous exogenous shock with potentially long-lasting repercussions, it is rather safe to assume that the severe downturn is already here.

April 9, 2020 April 9, 2020 3 EN

John Galakis ... (+2)

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Is the U.S. marketâ€™s steady outperformance about to turn?

Regional or country allocations are one of the primary decisions that asset allocators need to actively take. Especially within the developed market universe it is certainly not a straightforward one, due to the leading position of the U.S. equity market and its significance for other equity markets.A most striking observation, however, is the relative outperformance of the U.S. equity market during the last decade.

November 25, 2019 November 25, 2019 3 EN

John Galakis ... (+2)

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U.S. equities should bottom 2-quarters before real GDP growth!

The report analyses the relation between the equity market and real economic activity in the U.S.

EUR 25.00

November 5, 2019 November 5, 2019 3 EN

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Recession odds have markedly moved up towards worrisome levels

U.S. recession expectations: where do we stand?

Is the U.S. marketâ€™s steady outperformance about to turn?

U.S. equities should bottom 2-quarters before real GDP growth!

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