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Is the U.S. economy heading towards a recession?

​There have been two opposing trends in the global economy that have been inducing volatility in financial markets for sometime. The first is the widely documented emerging economy slowdown and, more importantly, Chinese slowdown. Needless to say, the fear of a Chinese ‘hard landing’ scenario has produced excessive turbulence in commodity, foreign exchange and more recently global equity markets. There are signs, however, that the slowdown is not confined to emerging markets, but that it is gradually spreading to developed economies. Developed market manufacturing and to a lesser extent services PMIs have been steadily decelerating, and a number of developed economy manufacturing sectors are close to or in contraction territory. The second, and most surprising, is that consumers in the developed economy spectrum are keeping up relatively well, given the global economic environment.

The latest rout in global commodity and equity markets, coupled with the ongoing divergence in major central banks’ underlying monetary policies and its consequent spill over effects in the foreign exchange and fixed income markets has rekindled fears about a possible recession in the U.S. economy. Moreover, the rising fear that central banks are gradually losing control and effectiveness in fulfilling their mandates is fuelling investor speculation of an upcoming recession. Is investor concern unwarranted? 

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Iniohos Advisory Services
Iniohos Advisory Services

​Iniohos Advisory Services is an independent investment research and consulting house, founded by investment professionals with long and in-depth experience in global financial markets.

Iniohos Advisory Services aims to provide top-end investment solutions to High Net Worth Individuals and institutional investors, ranging from proactive investment research to tailor made financial and risk modelling.

Our research covers the areas of investment and macroeconomic research, investment strategy and asset allocation, financial modelling and risk management.

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