Appropriate upward trajectory - IR&M risk management update 23 February 2018
- Summary: Overall changes were strongly negatively biased. January might have been the point of maximum bullishness. 89% of regime tests in this report were positive, compared to 97% in January.
- Economic momentum remains mostly positive. UK and China have reversed to negative though. OECD’s (lagging) leading indicators are still rising. Economic and business sentiment remains falling, consumer sentiment remains rising.
- Earnings momentum remains positive.
- Risk: CPI and PPI are trendless or falling, not rising. Financial risk is rising, generally.
Notable: Preliminary PMI fell sharply.
FAANG bounced well.
Inflation is not surprising on the upside.
When the music stops, things get complicated
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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