reports
- Alexander Ineichen
Freedom, rough patches and the five Bs
There is an iron law of capital. It states that capital goes where it is welcome and well treated. Capital is not just bucks, but businesses, brains, bodies, and blueprints; the five Bs. They too go where they are welcome and well treated. Freedom, prosperity and the five Bs are interlinked. It’s all for nothing if you don’t have freedom. The freest are best off. If the government allows the market to do the “right” things, but not what it deems the “wrong” things, it is the government who make...
- Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 11 June 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for emerging markets turned negative. Europe STOXX 600 flipped back to positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 3 changes to long-term price momentum; 2 were positive (Canadian Energy and Spanish Utilities), 1 was negative (Italian Banks). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Changes over the past four weeks were positively biased. (page ...
- Alexander Ineichen
Liquidity squeeze - IR&M risk management update 8 June 2018
Overall changes in this update were negatively biased; over the past five updates the positive-negative change ratio was 25:58, i.e., a negative bias. From 68 regime tests in this update, 52 (76%) were positive Economic momentum continues to turn negative. PMI, economic sentiment, business sentiment, and consumer sentiment are all falling. Earnings momentum remains generally positive. Risk: CPI is rising again, especially in Eurozone. PPI remains trendless. Sovereign risk is rising, especia...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 4 June 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for UK and Ireland turned positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 7 changes to long-term price momentum; 6 were positive (Japanese Consumer Discretionary and World Materials both flip-flopped, UK and Dutch Industrials, Australian Real Estate, European Telecom), 1 was negative (Swiss Financials). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Chang...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 4 June 2018
Global growth The Q1 18 growth rate remains stable. (page 2) Industrial production remains positive. (page 3) Sentiment Average PMI remain falling. Strong falls were in Europe, Japan, and Turkey. (pages 4-5) Economic sentiment is falling again. (page 6) Business sentiment is rising in May, after falling in March and April. (page 7) Consumer sentiment remains falling. (page 8) US Non-farm payrolls at 223k were above expectations. (page 9) No red flags from...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 28 May 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for Brazil and the MSCI Frontier emerging markets index turned negative. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 8 changes to long-term price momentum; 1 was positive (German IT), 7 were negative (Japanese and South Korean Consumer Discretionary, World Materials, World and US Industrials, World Financials, and South Korean IT). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 28 May 2018
Global growth Industrial production remains positive. (page 2) Sentiment Preliminary PMI were negatively biased, especially in Eurozone. (page 3) Economic sentiment has stabilised. (page 4) Business sentiment is rising in May, after falling in March and April. (page 5) Consumer sentiment remains falling. (page 6) US Erratic Richmond Fed index jumps back after sharp fall in April. (page 7) Europe One Eurozone proxy for business conditions is ...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 21 May 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for Turkey and Indonesia turned negative. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 6 changes to long-term price momentum; 3 were positive (Japanese Consumer Discretionary flip-flopped, South Korean Industrials, and Dutch Consumer Staples), 3 were negative (World and Swiss Banks and South Korean Energy). The ratio between positive and negative changes of long-term sector price momentum over the past four weeks was 17:12, ...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Earnings Momentum Monitor 21 May 2018
Equities by geography Long-term earnings momentum for South Korea turned positive. (page 1) Equities by sector There were 4 changes to long-term earnings momentum; UK Consumer Discretionary and South Korean Consumer Staples turned positive, German Financials and Taiwanese IT turned negative. (pages 2-3)
- Alexander Ineichen
Trading on fumes - IR&M risk management update 17 May 2018
Executive summary: Overall changes in this update were positively biased. Over the past five updates the positive-negative change ratio was 22:67, i.e., a negative bias. From 62 regime tests in this update, 47 (76%) were positive vs. 61% in our last update. Economic momentum continues to turn negative. Our global model remains off peak. OECD’s leading indicators have reversed and are now falling. Economic, business, and consumer sentiment remains falling. Earnings momentum remains positive, g...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 14 May 2018
Global growth Hong Kong surprises positively. (page 2) Global economy is worsening based on at least one measure. (page 3) Industrial production remains positive. (page 4) Sentiment Sentiment gauges, when averaged, remain falling. (pages 5-7) US There are no alarm bells going off from consulting a consumer sentiment gauge or an economic health check. (pages 8-9) France Business sentiment is falling mildly. (page 10)
- Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 14 May 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for France, the Netherlands, and Australia turned positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 9 changes to long-term price momentum; 7 were positive (European Materials (flop-flipped), Japanese Real Estate, South Korean IT, Spanish Energy, German and Japanese Utilities, and UK Health Care), 2 were negative (Chinese Consumer Discretionary and Canadian Banks). The ratio between positive and negative changes of long...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M report - Regime testing
Executive summary: Nowcasting is the economic discipline of determining a trend or a trend reversal objectively in real time. Nowcasting is fact-based, focuses on the known and knowable, and therefore avoids forecasting. Nowcasting is the basis of a robust decision-making process. Regime testing is one aspect of nowcasting. The more factual the input into the investment management decision process, the higher the conviction the investor can have. Knowing the current regime, therefore, allows ...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 7 May 2018
Global growth Lower in Mexico, Eurozone, and Italy. (page 2) PMI Ratio of risers to fallers was 11:20 in developed markets and 13:8 in emerging markets. (page 3-4) Sentiment Sentiment gauges, when averaged, remain falling. (pages 5-6) US Non-farm payrolls below expectations. (page 7) ISM report was overall negative. (page 8) Germany Factory orders are positive but falling. (page 9) Australia Business conditions ro...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 7 May 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for Australia turned negative. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 7 changes to long-term price momentum, 2 positive (UK Consumer Discretionary and European Real Estate) and 5 negative (Japanese Consumer Discretionary, European and US Materials, Chinese Banks, and US Health Care). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Changes over the past four...
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 30 April 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for the Nikkei 225 (but not the Topix or the MSCI Japan) flipped back to positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 7 changes to long-term price momentum, 5 positive (South Korean Consumer Discretionary, UK Real Estate, US and UK Energy, and French Consumer Staples) and 2 negative (South Korean Materials and World Health Care). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of lo...
- Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 30 April 2018
Sentiment Sentiment gauges, when averaged, remain falling. (pages 2-4) UK Expectations remain falling. (page 5) Switzerland Ditto. (pages 6-7) Risk Price momentum in European bank shares remains negative. (page 8) Hedge funds extremely net short of US Treasury futures. (page 9)
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