Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Freedom, rough patches and the five Bs
There is an iron law of capital. It states that capital goes where it is welcome and well treated. Capital is not just bucks, but businesses, brains, bodies, and blueprints; the five Bs. They too go where they are welcome and well treated. Freedom, prosperity and the five Bs are interlinked. It’s all for nothing if you don’t have freedom. The freest are best off. If the government allows the market to do the “right” things, but not what it deems the “wrong” things, it is the government who make...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 11 June 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for emerging markets turned negative. Europe STOXX 600 flipped back to positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 3 changes to long-term price momentum; 2 were positive (Canadian Energy and Spanish Utilities), 1 was negative (Italian Banks). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Changes over the past four weeks were positively biased. (page ...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Liquidity squeeze - IR&M risk management update 8 June 2018
Overall changes in this update were negatively biased; over the past five updates the positive-negative change ratio was 25:58, i.e., a negative bias. From 68 regime tests in this update, 52 (76%) were positive Economic momentum continues to turn negative. PMI, economic sentiment, business sentiment, and consumer sentiment are all falling. Earnings momentum remains generally positive. Risk: CPI is rising again, especially in Eurozone. PPI remains trendless. Sovereign risk is rising, especia...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 4 June 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for UK and Ireland turned positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 7 changes to long-term price momentum; 6 were positive (Japanese Consumer Discretionary and World Materials both flip-flopped, UK and Dutch Industrials, Australian Real Estate, European Telecom), 1 was negative (Swiss Financials). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Chang...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Freedom, rough patches and the five Bs
There is an iron law of capital. It states that capital goes where it is welcome and well treated. Capital is not just bucks, but businesses, brains, bodies, and blueprints; the five Bs. They too go where they are welcome and well treated. Freedom, prosperity and the five Bs are interlinked. It’s all for nothing if you don’t have freedom. The freest are best off. If the government allows the market to do the “right” things, but not what it deems the “wrong” things, it is the government who make...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Liquidity squeeze - IR&M risk management update 8 June 2018
Overall changes in this update were negatively biased; over the past five updates the positive-negative change ratio was 25:58, i.e., a negative bias. From 68 regime tests in this update, 52 (76%) were positive Economic momentum continues to turn negative. PMI, economic sentiment, business sentiment, and consumer sentiment are all falling. Earnings momentum remains generally positive. Risk: CPI is rising again, especially in Eurozone. PPI remains trendless. Sovereign risk is rising, especia...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 4 June 2018
Global growth The Q1 18 growth rate remains stable. (page 2) Industrial production remains positive. (page 3) Sentiment Average PMI remain falling. Strong falls were in Europe, Japan, and Turkey. (pages 4-5) Economic sentiment is falling again. (page 6) Business sentiment is rising in May, after falling in March and April. (page 7) Consumer sentiment remains falling. (page 8) US Non-farm payrolls at 223k were above expectations. (page 9) No red flags from...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Flash Update 28 May 2018
Global growth Industrial production remains positive. (page 2) Sentiment Preliminary PMI were negatively biased, especially in Eurozone. (page 3) Economic sentiment has stabilised. (page 4) Business sentiment is rising in May, after falling in March and April. (page 5) Consumer sentiment remains falling. (page 6) US Erratic Richmond Fed index jumps back after sharp fall in April. (page 7) Europe One Eurozone proxy for business conditions is ...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Trading on fumes - IR&M risk management update 17 May 2018
Executive summary: Overall changes in this update were positively biased. Over the past five updates the positive-negative change ratio was 22:67, i.e., a negative bias. From 62 regime tests in this update, 47 (76%) were positive vs. 61% in our last update. Economic momentum continues to turn negative. Our global model remains off peak. OECD’s leading indicators have reversed and are now falling. Economic, business, and consumer sentiment remains falling. Earnings momentum remains positive, g...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M report - Regime testing
Executive summary: Nowcasting is the economic discipline of determining a trend or a trend reversal objectively in real time. Nowcasting is fact-based, focuses on the known and knowable, and therefore avoids forecasting. Nowcasting is the basis of a robust decision-making process. Regime testing is one aspect of nowcasting. The more factual the input into the investment management decision process, the higher the conviction the investor can have. Knowing the current regime, therefore, allows ...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
The age of the dotard - IR&M risk management update
Summary: Overall changes were balanced. From 60 regime tests in this update, 58 imply risk is on. Economic momentum remains mostly positive, UK and Canada being two exceptions. Economic, business, and consumer sentiment remains rising. Earnings momentum remains positive. The most recent winners in terms of earnings revisions were Energy and Materials, with downward revisions being in Financials. Risk: CPI is stable and PPI is rising. VIX reached new all-time-low at 9.14% on 3 November. Not...
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
Alexander Ineichen
- Alexander Ineichen
IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 11 June 2018
Equities by geography Long-term price momentum for emerging markets turned negative. Europe STOXX 600 flipped back to positive. (pages 1-2) Equities by sector There were 3 changes to long-term price momentum; 2 were positive (Canadian Energy and Spanish Utilities), 1 was negative (Italian Banks). (page 4) Commodities All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Changes over the past four weeks were positively biased. (page ...