Avoiding pain - IR&M risk management update 6 April 2018
- Summary: Overall changes were again negatively biased. From 75 regime tests in this update, 54 (72%) were positive, compared to 97% in January. Many equity indices took their Death Cross recently.
- Economic momentum: Roughly half of our models imply negative momentum or a negative cross-over. Overall the situation is worse in Europe, when compared to US.
- Earnings momentum remains positive.
- Risk: CPI remains trendless. PPI remains falling. Financial risk gauges continue to rise and warn.
- Notable: Better safe than sorry.
Draghi’s big whip remains.
Germany: economic bliss no more.
UK: almost as bad as Dec 1999 and Oct 2007.
Oct ‘07 could be to Jun ‘08, what Jan ‘18 is to Sep ’18.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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