Contagious economic folly - IR&M risk management update 16 March 2018
- Summary: Overall changes were again negatively biased. 92% of regime tests in this update were positive, compared to 97% in the January update.
- Economic momentum remains mostly positive. OECD’s (lagging) leading indicators are still rising. However, for the first time in a while, risers and fallers were balanced. Business and consumer sentiment remain falling, generally.
- Earnings momentum remains positive. The last monthly fall for MSCI World earnings estimates was in November 2016.
- Risk: CPI is trendless or falling. PPI is falling. Risk is generally rising when judged by risk composite indices.
- Notable: US is improving structurally.
US recession probability is rising.
European corporate margins are catching up.
Tribute to Stephen Hawking.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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