IRM - Flash Update 30 October 2017

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IR&M

Alexander Ineichen

Flash Update 30 October 2017

Global economy	13 from 1 regime tests imply risk is on. (page 1) Global economic activity, remains in upward tradjectory. (page 2)
Industrial production	IP remains positive. (page 3)
PMI	Ratio of positive to negative preliminary PMI was 5:4, with a strong rise in US and a sharp fall in Eurozone. (page 4)
Economic sentiment	Remains rising. (page 5)
Business sentiment	Ditto. (page 6)
Consumer sentiment	Ditto. (page 7)
US	Expectations component of Richmond indicator rose, while manfucturing index fell. (pge 8)
Eurozone	An important indicator that fell sharply in September, rebounded even more strongly in October. (page 9)
Germany	Germany remains at 100^th percentile according to IFO. (page 10)
Italy	Business confidence remains rising. (page 11)
UK	One business sentiment fell sharply. (pages 12-13)
Switzerland	KOF indicator remains in upward trajectory and Federer won yet again; so all is well. (page 14)
Risk	Brazil remains easing. (page 15) Price momentum in European bank shares could be in process of turning negative. (page 16)
Triva	Laffer thinks reducing taxes is a good thing. (page 17) 97% of equity markets are in a bull market. (page 18)

31/10/2017 19 EN

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IR&M

Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.

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Alexander Ineichen

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Flash Update 30 October 2017

Freedom, rough patches and the five Bs

IR&M Flash Update 11 June 2018

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