IR&M Flash Update 12 February 2018
|
Global GDP |
At one level, nothing has changed. (page 3) |
|
Industrial production |
Europe ex UK surprises positively. (page 4) |
|
Economic sentiment |
Continues to fall. (page 5) |
|
Consumer sentiment |
Continues to rise. (page 6) |
|
US |
Economic health check ticks nearly all boxes. (page 7) US has underperformed YTD. (page 17) |
|
Japan |
Economic sentiment measure falls by 1.3 standard deviation. (page 8) |
|
Risk |
Complancency is gone. (page 9) VIX spiked, a normal occurrence. (pages 2 and 10-12) Hedging with options is costly. (page 13) Sovereign risk rose too. (page 14) Velocity of money might have stopped falling; thus making inflation more of a possibility than when it was falling. (page 15) Hedge funds are short both equities and bonds. (page 16) Defensive equity markets fell less. (page 18) |
|
Triva |
Recent bull run was unprecedented from at least one perspective. (pages 2 and 19) Mean reversion is the most powerful thing in finance. (pages 2 and 20). |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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