IR&M Flash Update 12 March 2018
|
GDP growth |
Expectations fell sharply. (page 3) Taiwan exports were a negative surprise. (page 4) The growth rate is stalling or falling. (page 5) |
|
Industrial production |
IP remains positive with the negative surprises being in Europe. (page 6) |
|
Economic sentiment |
Remains overall falling. Not only is sentiment falling, the speed of the fall is accelerating. (page 7) |
|
Consumer sentiment |
Remains overall falling nearly everywhere outside of the US. (page 8) |
|
PMI |
Ratio of risers to fallers was 9:23 with sharp falls mainly in Eurozone. In EmMa the ratio was 9:12 with sharp falls in China and India. (pages 9-10) |
|
US |
Non-farm payrolls on a roll. (page 11) GDPNow falls to +2.5%. (page 12) |
|
Japan |
One economic indicator falls by 3.8 standard deviation on a preliminary basis. (page 13) Another survey implies all is still well. (page 14) Machine tool orders are fine. (page 15) |
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Risk |
Liquidity is easing, funding costs and funding risks are rising. (pages 16-17) |
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Trivia |
We all agree that pessimism is a mark of superior intellect. (page 2) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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