IR&M Flash Update 19 February 2018
Summary flash update
|
Global GDP |
Growht rate is stable or only falling mildly. (page 3) |
|
Industrial production |
US disappoints a bit. (page 4) |
|
Business sentiment |
Continues to fall. (page 5) |
|
Consumer sentiment |
Continues to rise. (page 6) |
|
US |
One nowcasting model implies +3.2% growth for Q1. (page 7) Consumer sentiment remains positive or is ebullient. (page 8) Inflation is not a problem for small business owners. (page 9) Shares rise, USD falls. (page 15) |
|
Japan |
Exports continue to grow and beat expectations in January. (page 10) |
|
Risk |
Inflation is trendless. (page 11) US core inflation is not rising. (page 12) M2 growth rate is falling. (page 13) Move from QE to QT means Santa is leaving. (page 14) |
|
Triva |
Mismatch between earnings and shareprices is small in China and big in Europe. (page 16) Rising rates no laughing matter. (pages 17-18) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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