IR&M Flash Update 3 April 2018
|
Sentiment |
Economic, business and consumer sentiment are falling and the falls seem accelerating. PMIs too fell sharply. (pages 3-7) |
|
US |
An average of Fed indices is still rising. US consumer is still fine; last week’s fall was a non-event. Richmond Fed indicator fell sharply, after February’s strong rise. (page 8-11) |
|
Europe |
Consumer sentiment in Spain fell sharply. UK business conditions stalled after sharp fall. A leading indicator in Switzerland breached an upward trajectory. (pages 12-14) |
|
Asia |
Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey was a non-event. (page 15) |
|
Risk |
Financials are turning negative. Composite risk gauges continue to rise. Expect correlations to remain high. (pages 16-18) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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