IRM - IRM Flash Update 3 March 2018

Report

IR&M

Alexander Ineichen

IR&M Flash Update 3 March 2018

Summary flash update

GDP growth	The growth rate is stalling or falling. (page 3)
Industrial production	IP remains positive, Singapore and South Korea surprising positively. (page 4)
Economic sentiment	Remains overall falling with US rising sharply, and France falling sharply. (page 5)
Business sentiment	Business sentiment is stalling. (page 6)
Consumer sentiment	Remains overall falling. (page 7)
PMI	Ratio of risers to fallers was 6:17 with sharp falls mainly in Eurozone. In EmMa the ratio was 6:8 with sharp falls in China. (pages 8-10)
US	US consumer remains confident. (page 11) Richmond Fed off the charts again. (page 12)
UK	Lloyds Bank Business Barometer implies positive economic momentum. (page 13)
Japan	Unemployment at lowest level since 1993. (page 14)
Switzerland	5 regime tests imply all is well. One indicator fell by 1.2 sd, then by 0.6 sd. (pages 15-16)
Italy	5 regime tests imply all is well. (pages 17-18)
Sweden	Long past point of maximum bullishness. (page 19)
Risk	Correlation is high. (pages 20 and 23) Confirmation that bond bull market has ended is nigh. (page 21)
Trivia	Boring is good, trade wars aren’t. (page 2) Negative outliers are mounting. (page 22)

03/03/2018 24 EN

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IR&M

Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.

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Alexander Ineichen

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IR&M Flash Update 3 March 2018

Freedom, rough patches and the five Bs

IR&M Flash Update 11 June 2018

IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 11 June 2018

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