IR&M Flash Update 4 June 2018
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Global growth |
The Q1 18 growth rate remains stable. (page 2) Industrial production remains positive. (page 3) |
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Sentiment |
Average PMI remain falling. Strong falls were in Europe, Japan, and Turkey. (pages 4-5) Economic sentiment is falling again. (page 6) Business sentiment is rising in May, after falling in March and April. (page 7) Consumer sentiment remains falling. (page 8) |
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US |
Non-farm payrolls at 223k were above expectations. (page 9) No red flags from US consumer. (page 10) US yield curve has fallen to lowest level since September 2017. (page 11) |
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Eurozone |
One Eurozone sentiment index fell sharply and breached its upward trajectory. (page 12) |
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Italy |
Business sentiment has reversed to negative. (page 13) Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May. (page 14) |
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Switzerland |
One economic indicator is at its threshold; two regime tests implying lower future returns for risky assets. (page 15) |
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Trivia |
“Smart money” is leaving. (page 16) Italian government debt is at 156% of GDP when Target 2 balances are taken into account. (page 18) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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