IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 14 May 2018
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Equities by geography |
Long-term price momentum for France, the Netherlands, and Australia turned positive. (pages 1-2) |
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Equities by sector |
There were 9 changes to long-term price momentum; 7 were positive (European Materials (flop-flipped), Japanese Real Estate, South Korean IT, Spanish Energy, German and Japanese Utilities, and UK Health Care), 2 were negative (Chinese Consumer Discretionary and Canadian Banks). The ratio between positive and negative changes of long-term sector price momentum over the past four weeks was 21:9, i.e, this ratio turned positive again. This means that our conviction that this is indeed an equities bear market has fallen. The probability that the 2018 correction resembles 2015/16 rather than 2008/2009 has risen. (page 4) |
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Commodities |
All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Changes over the past four weeks were negatively biased though. (page 5) |
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FX |
There were only 4 changes to long-term price momentum. Note that the USD turned positive against 5 currencies over the past 8 weeks. (page 6) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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