IR&M Price Momentum Monitor 21 May 2018
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Equities by geography |
Long-term price momentum for Turkey and Indonesia turned negative. (pages 1-2) |
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Equities by sector |
There were 6 changes to long-term price momentum; 3 were positive (Japanese Consumer Discretionary flip-flopped, South Korean Industrials, and Dutch Consumer Staples), 3 were negative (World and Swiss Banks and South Korean Energy). The ratio between positive and negative changes of long-term sector price momentum over the past four weeks was 17:12, i.e, this ratio turned positive again in week #19. This means that our conviction that this is indeed an equities bear market has fallen. The probability that the 2018 correction resembles 2015/16 has risen. (page 4) |
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Commodities |
All composite indices remain positive in terms of long-term price momentum. Changes over the past four weeks were balanced. (page 5) |
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FX |
There were only 5 changes to long-term price momentum. Note that the USD turned positive against 5 currencies over the past 9 weeks. (page 6) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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