Momentum lost - IR&M risk management update 27 April 2018
- Overall changes in this update were positively biased. From 74 regime tests in this update, 48 were positive (61%). This compares to 97% in January and 88% in February. The negative regime tests are mainly in pan-Europe and China.
- Economic momentum continues to turn negative. OECD’s (lagging) leading indicators have reversed and are stalling or falling. Economic, business, and consumer sentiment remains falling.
- Earnings momentum remains positive.
- Risk: CPI remains trendless. PPI remains falling. Risk is “off” based on at least one risk gauge. Tina no more.
- Notable: US recession probability remains low.
Sweds work 35 minutes for a Big Mac.
The music might have stopped.
Stability begets instability.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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