Reminiscence of 1987 - IR&M risk management update
- Summary: Overall changes were positively biased. From 51 regime tests in this update, 48 imply risk is on.
- Economic momentum remains mostly positive. Economic growth rates, OECD leading indicators, as well as economic, business, and consumer sentiment are all rising.
- Earnings momentum remains positive.
- Risk: CPI is stable and PPI is rising. Equity index (options) skew remains elevated and hedge funds remain covering shorts.
- Notable: One global indicator is hinting at a global slowdown.
US loan growth rate stopped falling.
US consumer and Philly are reminiscent of 1987
Spain turned negative.
A pan-Europe/UK economic proxy turned negative.
Investor complacency at peak levels.
The comfort zone is a dangerous place to be.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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