Supernutsobananas - IR&M risk management update 2 February 2018
- Summary: Overall changes were positively biased. 89% of regime tests in this update were positive, compared to 97% in the previous update.
- Economic momentum remains mostly positive. Economic sentiment could be in process of turning negative. Business sentiment remains negative while consumer sentiment remains positive.
Four regime tests imply below average returns in China. - Earnings momentum remains positive. January was a 2.5 standard deviation rise, triggered mainly by anticipated positive earnings impact of US tax reform.
- Risk: We cannot see inflation as a problem yet. CPI and PPI are stable and/or trendless. Risk is off in US corporate HY.
- Notable: Signals from bond market ain’t good.
One nowcasting model suggests US grew at 5.4% in Q4.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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