The age of the dotard - IR&M risk management update
- Summary: Overall changes were balanced. From 60 regime tests in this update, 58 imply risk is on.
- Economic momentum remains mostly positive, UK and Canada being two exceptions. Economic, business, and consumer sentiment remains rising.
- Earnings momentum remains positive. The most recent winners in terms of earnings revisions were Energy and Materials, with downward revisions being in Financials.
- Risk: CPI is stable and PPI is rising. VIX reached new all-time-low at 9.14% on 3 November.
- Notable: Taiwan trade disappoints.
One US recession countdown-clock has been reset.
S&P 500 has not yet halved this decade. A new high was hit, precisely one year after the age of the dotard commenced.
Correlations most likely high when this epoch ends.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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