US consumer in very high spirits - IR&M risk management update
- Summary: Overall changes were positively biased. From 58 regime tests in this update, 49 (85%) were positive. This compares to 97% in our last update.
- Economic momentum remains mostly positive. OECD leading indicators continue to rise. Economic and consumer sentiment is rising, business sentiment stalling a bit.
- Earnings momentum remains positive. Earnings in Materials and Energy continues to rise. Financials going the other way.
- Risk: CPI is stable and PPI is rising. Investors might have given up hedging.
- Notable: New Zealand is going Venezuela.
Red flag from Li Keqiang (index).
No red flag from FAANG.
Parts of the US economy are literally off the charts
The current bull run is nothing special.
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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