Report
Wim Lewi

DTPL – Sit Still when being Sheared

Today we update our Dynamic Top Pick List :
• We ADD : None and We REMOVE : None
• We KEEP Large Caps: AB Inbev, Ageas, Ahold Delhaize, CFE, ArgenX, ASML, bpost, D'Ieteren, Telenet, UCB and Umicore.
• We KEEP Mid Caps: Care Property Invest, Fugro, Intervest Offices and Warehouses, Kinepolis, Materialise, Ontex, Sipef and X-fab.

Performance: Since our previous update (3/2) our DTPL lost 2.9%. In a very tough market, that is 3.4% above the average of our closest benchmarks, the AEX (-5.8%, Tech heavy) Bel20 (-4.0%) and Stoxx50 (-9.5%, Banks). The worst performers were Xfab (-25.7%) and Ontex (-18.6%). The best performers were Small caps Fugro (+19.1%) and Umicore (+15.3%).

Our view: Since the start of the year, the market entered a growth correction period on inflation. We already had a defensive bias and have benefited from the risk-off trade. The Ukrainian conflict has added to the uncertainty. On one hand inflation will increase by another factor, while aggressive interest rate hikes (to fight inflation) have now become less likely. Central banks have a habit of throwing money at every problem that arises. This schizophrenic situation has caused US markets to rally from the first minute of the invasion. We do not know how long this conflict will last as it doesn’t make any sense to us. The West has chosen an economic response, which will also hurt our economy with more inflation. We have chosen not to make any changes to our selection. Some opportunities look interesting like ING and Exmar, but we are aware that the market will remain volatile as long as the conflict lasts. We discuss some names in our selection on 3 levels :

Short term inflation impact: Energy, metal and food prices are rising. This has a negative impact on consumer goods and retailers that have to pass it on. AB Inbev and Ahold remain in our selection as we believe they are premium brands. bpost suffers from higher transport costs, but its valuation more than reflects that and it is industry wide. Ontex was selected as a take-out case and is rumoured today to be a GBL target. Our real-estate names can index rents to inflation. Care Property will also have to increase wages and loses part of the benefit. Fugro and Sipef are clear winners of the inflation trend.

Long term transition impact: Europe will have to accelerate its energy transition and cut its dependence on Russian Oil&Gas, even if the conflict ends today. CFE, Umicore are companies that will benefit. Europe will also have to invest more in defence, but there are no names in our universe.

Recession risk: A recession becomes more likely as the conflict drags on. Cyclical names are vulnerable in that scenario. However, ASML has key technology and X-fab benefits from low technology chip shortage. We have plenty of defensive names to balance that : Kinepolis, Telenet, UCB, ArgenX.
Underlyings
AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG

AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG is an Austria-based company that invests in European companies. The Company is engaged in the investment in undervalued small-cap and micro-cap companies, in medium-sized companies with a growth potential, as well as in pre-initial public offering (IPO) companies. In the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2009, AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG's portfolio included Rhoen Kliniken AG, a Germany-based hospital operator, Realtime Technology AG, a Germany-based provider of visualization technologies and services for industrial applications in the automobile, aviation and consumer goods sectors and RIB Software AG, a Germany-based specialist in building construction, plant engineering and infrastructure management software.

Ageas SA/NV

Ageas is an insurance company engaged in providing a range of life and non-life products distributed through a variety of channels. Co. focuses on helping its customers to mitigate risks related to property, casualty, life and pensions. Co. serves its customers through a combination of wholly owned subsidiaries, equity associates and partnerships, with financial institutions and distributors in Belgium, the U.K., Luxembourg, Italy, Portugal, Turkey, France, China, Malaysia, India, Thailand and Hong Kong. Co. is organized into five operating segments: Belgium, U.K., Continental Europe, Asia, and General Account.

ArGEN-X SE

Argenx N.V. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing a deep pipeline of differentiated antibody-based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. Utilizing its suite of differentiated technologies, Co. is focused on developing product candidates with the potential to be either first-in-class against novel targets or best-in-class against known, but complex, targets in order to treat diseases with a significant unmet medical need.

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

Bpost SA

Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.

Care Property Invest SA

Care Property Invest NV. Care Property Invest NV, formerly Serviceflats Invest NV, is a Belgium-based real estate investment company that builds and finances housing for pensioners. The Company specializes in premises equipped with technologies ensuring safety and comfort of elderly people. In addition, Care Property Invest designs, builds, supervises the progress of a number of construction works, monitors the budget and finances projects in the long term. Care Property Invest NV cooperates mainly for public health care center in Antwerp -Openbaar Centrum voor Maatschappelijk Welziijn (OCMW), including Berchem. The Company focuses its activities on the Belgian market. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, such as Ter Bleuk NV, Siger SA and Konli BVBA and VSP Wolvertem bvba.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Fugro NV Cert of Shs

Fugro collects and interprets data related to the earth's surface, soils, and rocks beneath. Co. provides advice to oil and gas, mining, and construction industries. Co. provides the people, equipment and technology that support the exploration, development, production and transportation of the world's natural resources. Co. also provides its clients with the technical data and information required to design, construct and maintain structures and infrastructure in a safe, reliable and efficient manner. Co. operates in three divisions: Geotechnical, Survey, and Geoscience.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates through the following segments: Imerys, which consists of the Imerys group that operates in four business lines of energy solutions and specialties, filtration and performance additives, ceramic materials, and high resistance minerals; and Financial Pillar, which includes, on the one hand, under investment activities, the companies Sienna Capital, Ergon Capital Partners (ECP), ECP II, ECP III, PAI Europe III, Sagard, Sagard II and Sagard III, Kartesia and Merieux Participations I and II and, on the other hand, under consolidated operating activities, the operating subsidiaries of ECP III.

Intervest Offices & Warehouses SA

Intervest Offices & Warehouses is a Belgian property investment fund. Co. specializes in investments in office buildings and semi-industrial properties situated on locations outside municipal centres. Co.'s business properties are located on the Antwerp-Brussels axis. Its activities can be divided into two business segments: Offices segment which includes the properties that are let to companies for professional purposes as office space; and Semi-industrial buildings segment which includes those premises with a logistical function, storage facilities and high-tech buildings. At Dec 31 2010, Co.'s portfolio consists of 69% in offices buildings and 31% in semi-industrial buildings.

Kinepolis Group NV

Kinepolis Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which is primarily engaged in the operation of cinemas. The Company's activities are divided into such business units, as Box office, In-theatre sales, Business-to-business (B2B), Film distribution and Real Estate. The Box office unit includes sale of the tickets. The In-theatre sales unit is involved in the sale of snacks and related articles. The B2B unit takes care of the organization of corporate events and the sale of screen advertizing to corporate customers. The Film distribution unit includes all activities related to movies showed in the cinema. The Real Estate is responsible for the property management and utilization. Additionally, the Company has a Technical department, which delivers technological support to Kinepolis facilities. The Company is present in Belgium, France, Spain and Poland.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize is an international group of supermarket and foodservice operators based in Europe and the U.S. Co. operates supermarkets and convenience stores. In addition, Co. provides online food retailing services. Co. also finances, develops and manages store sites and shopping centers. Ahold Europe comprises Albert Heijn in the Netherlands and Belgium; Etos, Gall & Gall, and albert.nl in the Netherlands; and Albert / Hypernova in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Ahold USA is organized into four retail divisions: Giant Carlisle, Giant Landover, Stop & Shop New England, and Stop & Shop New York Metro. The Peapod online business is also part of Ahold USA.

Materialise ADS

Ontex Group N.V.

Ontex Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which operates in the manufacturing sector of industry. The Company is a producer of disposable personal hygiene solutions for babies, women and adults. It offers a range of such products as baby diapers, baby pants, baby wet wipes, pads, pantyliners, tampons, light incontinence products, pull-ups, belt diapers, all-in-one tape systems, shaped pads and underpards. Its products are distributed through retail partner brands, as well as under its own brands (canbebe, canped, Helen Harper, Moltex, Baby Charm) across several distribution channels, such as retail trade, care institutions and pharmacies. The Company is present in Europe, Northern Africa, Australia and Asia.

SIPEF group

Sipef is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries and associated companies, Co. is primarily engaged in the development and production of sundry commodities, including palm oil, palm kernels, tea, tropical fruits and flowers, bananas, pineapples, ornamental plants, guava, pepper and natural rubber. Palm oil, which is Co.'s most important commodity, is used within the cosmetics industry, in soaps and detergents, as a supplement to cattle and poultry feed, for production of protein, and for several other purposes. In addition, Co. provides management, marketing and consultancy services in the agro-industry.

Telenet Group Holding NV

Telenet Group Holding is a holding company. Through its subsdiairies and its broadband network, Co. is engaged in the provision of cable television, including television services, broadband internet and telephony services to residential subscribers in Flanders and certain communes in Brussels as well as broadband internet, data and voice services in the business market throughout Belgium and parts of Luxembourg. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of mobile telephony services through a mobile virtual network operator partnership with Mobistar NV.

UCB S.A.

UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.

Umicore

Umicore is global player in the materials technology and recycling industries. Co. focuses on application areas such as chemistry, materials science, metallurgy and recycling. Co.'s business model comprises four segments: Catalysis, Performance Materials, Energy Materials and Recycling. Catalysis focuses on the abatement of global automotive emissions; Performance Materials focuses on materials that help develop more sophisticated and safer products; Energy Materials produces materials used in the production and storage of clean energy including rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics; and Recycling treats complex waste streams containing precious and other non-ferrous metals.

X Fab Silicon Foundries SE

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KBC Securities
KBC Securities

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Analysts
Wim Lewi

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