Report
Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick list - Licking our Wounds

Today we update our Dynamic Top Pick List :
• We ADD : None
• We REMOVE : Fugro
• We KEEP Large Caps: AB Inbev, Ageas, Ahold Delhaize, ArgenX, ASML, bpost, D'Ieteren, Telenet, UCB and Umicore.
• We KEEP Mid Caps: Care Property Invest, EVS, Intervest Offices and Warehouses, Kinepolis, Materialise,TINC and X-fab.

Performance: In the previous month our Dynamic Top Pick List lost month-to-month 4.61% and ended a series of outperformance. We outperformed the BEL-20 by 0.6%, but underperformed the AEX and Stoxx50, by 5% and 5.5% respectively, lowering our average year-to-date outperformance to 6.5% from 10% before. This month’s best performers are X-Fab (+8.0%), Fugro (+7.3% and removed) and Argenx +6.5%. Worst performers month-to-month were Sofina (-27%), UCB (-21%) and tech-stock Materialise (-19%). We were too early to call the bottom on Sofina, our Holding update yesterday lowered the target price, but we remain committed to its selection after the decline. Also UCB finds itself in a similar position with a delay in the US and Materialise has been washed away with the technology debris from the Cathie Wood fall-out.
Our view: US markets seem to stabilise after a heavy correction since last October as the FED has taken a first shot at tempering inflation and lock-downs in China are easing. Nevertheless, investors are edgy about what lies in store for the economy over the next 18-24 months. The ECB still looks behind the curve and might have to accelerate the tightening as Europe suffers from self-inflicted inflation to pressure Russia into a cease-fire. Hence, we maintain our largely defensive stance and stick with our unlucky stocks (Sofina, UCB and Materialise) that have taken a serious beating over the last month. We note that apart from Oil&Gas, all segments of the market have shown some kind of negative reaction to the recent recession fears, only the degree varies. We remove Fugro after a fantastic performance on the back of the oil price recovery (see below).
Fugro Removed: Fugro has performed very well over the last months and, therefore, we decide to take the name out of the DTPL. Although still we strongly believe in the positive momentum in all its end-markets, we believe one should keep an eye on margins due to cost inflation. The margin recovery at Fugro is underway but remains fragile. The increasing costs and supply chain issues can affect these fragile margin improvements. The share doesn't have sufficient upside vs our valuation and we want to wait for Q2 reporting in order to assess the impact of cost inflation and supply chain issues before adapting our estimates. We keep our 'Buy' rating on the name but because of the limited upside we remove it from the DTPL. .
Underlyings
AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG

AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG is an Austria-based company that invests in European companies. The Company is engaged in the investment in undervalued small-cap and micro-cap companies, in medium-sized companies with a growth potential, as well as in pre-initial public offering (IPO) companies. In the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2009, AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG's portfolio included Rhoen Kliniken AG, a Germany-based hospital operator, Realtime Technology AG, a Germany-based provider of visualization technologies and services for industrial applications in the automobile, aviation and consumer goods sectors and RIB Software AG, a Germany-based specialist in building construction, plant engineering and infrastructure management software.

Ageas SA/NV

Ageas is an insurance company engaged in providing a range of life and non-life products distributed through a variety of channels. Co. focuses on helping its customers to mitigate risks related to property, casualty, life and pensions. Co. serves its customers through a combination of wholly owned subsidiaries, equity associates and partnerships, with financial institutions and distributors in Belgium, the U.K., Luxembourg, Italy, Portugal, Turkey, France, China, Malaysia, India, Thailand and Hong Kong. Co. is organized into five operating segments: Belgium, U.K., Continental Europe, Asia, and General Account.

ArGEN-X SE

Argenx N.V. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing a deep pipeline of differentiated antibody-based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. Utilizing its suite of differentiated technologies, Co. is focused on developing product candidates with the potential to be either first-in-class against novel targets or best-in-class against known, but complex, targets in order to treat diseases with a significant unmet medical need.

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

Bpost SA

Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.

Care Property Invest SA

Care Property Invest NV. Care Property Invest NV, formerly Serviceflats Invest NV, is a Belgium-based real estate investment company that builds and finances housing for pensioners. The Company specializes in premises equipped with technologies ensuring safety and comfort of elderly people. In addition, Care Property Invest designs, builds, supervises the progress of a number of construction works, monitors the budget and finances projects in the long term. Care Property Invest NV cooperates mainly for public health care center in Antwerp -Openbaar Centrum voor Maatschappelijk Welziijn (OCMW), including Berchem. The Company focuses its activities on the Belgian market. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, such as Ter Bleuk NV, Siger SA and Konli BVBA and VSP Wolvertem bvba.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates through the following segments: Imerys, which consists of the Imerys group that operates in four business lines of energy solutions and specialties, filtration and performance additives, ceramic materials, and high resistance minerals; and Financial Pillar, which includes, on the one hand, under investment activities, the companies Sienna Capital, Ergon Capital Partners (ECP), ECP II, ECP III, PAI Europe III, Sagard, Sagard II and Sagard III, Kartesia and Merieux Participations I and II and, on the other hand, under consolidated operating activities, the operating subsidiaries of ECP III.

Intervest Offices & Warehouses SA

Intervest Offices & Warehouses is a Belgian property investment fund. Co. specializes in investments in office buildings and semi-industrial properties situated on locations outside municipal centres. Co.'s business properties are located on the Antwerp-Brussels axis. Its activities can be divided into two business segments: Offices segment which includes the properties that are let to companies for professional purposes as office space; and Semi-industrial buildings segment which includes those premises with a logistical function, storage facilities and high-tech buildings. At Dec 31 2010, Co.'s portfolio consists of 69% in offices buildings and 31% in semi-industrial buildings.

Materialise ADS

Sofina SA

SOFINA is an investment company whose portfolio consists of shareholdings in various companies. Co. manages a portfolio of long-term and short-term investments. Its portfolio comprises investments in companies which are active in sectors such as: Energy and Services (GDF Suez, Suez Environnement, bioMerieux and Exmar); Retail (Colruyt, Delhaize); Consumer goods (Danone, Rapala, B & W Group, and Chapoutier); Satellite operators (SES); Finance Companies (Eurazeo, Caledonia, Luxempart, RAB Capital); Industry (Petit Forestier, Landis + Gyr, Carbone Lorraine and Deceuninck) and Alternative assets (Private equity, Hedge funds).

Telenet Group Holding NV

Telenet Group Holding is a holding company. Through its subsdiairies and its broadband network, Co. is engaged in the provision of cable television, including television services, broadband internet and telephony services to residential subscribers in Flanders and certain communes in Brussels as well as broadband internet, data and voice services in the business market throughout Belgium and parts of Luxembourg. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of mobile telephony services through a mobile virtual network operator partnership with Mobistar NV.

TINC Comm. VA

TINC Comm VA. Tinc Comm VA, also known as TINC, is a Belgium-based company focusing on investments in Infrastructure Asset Companies holding capitalintensive Infrastructure Assets providing services and generating cash flows of a long term sustainable nature. The Initial Investment Portfolio of the Company includes investments in over 10 Infrastructure Asset Companies holding underlying Infrastructure Assets in public private partnerships (PPP), energy and real assets in Belgium and the Netherlands, including Strorm and Brabo 1, among others. It operates through Storm Holding 4 NV.

UCB S.A.

UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.

Umicore

Umicore is global player in the materials technology and recycling industries. Co. focuses on application areas such as chemistry, materials science, metallurgy and recycling. Co.'s business model comprises four segments: Catalysis, Performance Materials, Energy Materials and Recycling. Catalysis focuses on the abatement of global automotive emissions; Performance Materials focuses on materials that help develop more sophisticated and safer products; Energy Materials produces materials used in the production and storage of clean energy including rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics; and Recycling treats complex waste streams containing precious and other non-ferrous metals.

X Fab Silicon Foundries SE

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

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Analysts
Wim Lewi

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