Report
Guy Sips ...
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update February 2024 – Adding Syensqo

We continue with a balanced cyclical/defensive Dynamic Top Pick List, but with a focus on value stocks that have been left behind. Defensive segment like holdings are overweight. However, in the Benelux we have a selection of cyclical industrials at cheap valuations that have often underperformed the market. We favour Benelux value stocks as even a mild recession typically hits growth stocks proportionally harder. We notice that some stocks have been hit hard by minor set-backs. These could be more relatively more resilient over FY24 as investors look for left behind stocks. Since the start of the selection for 2024 (published 14 December 2023), the Dynamic Top Pick List is up 4.0%, outperforming our refence indices (AEX, Bel20 and EuroStoxx50) on average by 2.13%.


Today we add Syensqo, a global leader in the vast majority of its businesses, to the KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List. Specialty Polymers and Composites are the crown jewels of the group combining steady growth prospects with top notch profitability (EBITDA margins over 30%). In Specialty Polymers Solvay has a unique and broad technology toolbox in the top end of the polymers pyramid, whilst Composites benefits from long order books (over 5x of yearly revenue). Overall, Syensqo targets 5-7% organic net sales growth over 2024-2028 with an underlying EBITDA margin that is expected to slightly improve over that period. Syensqo's valuation is excessively discounted vs specialty chemicals peers, with a c. 30% discount on P/E24e and EV/EBITDA25e multiples

Overall, we anticipate a cautious stock market over 1H24 as expectations for steep and fast interest rate cuts by central banks may prove to be premature as the strong inflation decline reverses into a small increase. Also corporate profit growth in Europe will slow. The strong US consumer might run out of cheap financing and stimulus. Also the upcoming elections in the US could divide the biggest economy into extreme stances and political uproar. The lingering conflict in Israel adds to the uncertainty as it could expand into important oil exporting countries and create renewed energy cost inflation. Also economic growth forecasts for Benelux and the Eurozone are edging down. We still expect a mild economic slow-down in Europe and Benelux over the next 12-18 months as it takes a while before interest rates impact the economy. On the inflation front, the sharp improvement in the gas price has flattened out (see graph above on US inflation). Food inflation is now also easing, but remains relatively high. Overall a relative defense stance in the portfolio is warranted.

Recall that this week The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting and signaled an openness to cutting them, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on investors' hopes that reductions would begin in March. The central bank's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee showed it is in no rush to reduce rates, noting in a statement Wednesday that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” Powell reinforced this message by saying, “Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting.” Powell told reporters Fed officials plan to start in-depth talks about the balance sheet at their March meeting. 
Underlyings
ABN AMRO Bank NV Depositary receipts

ABN Amro Bank NV is a bank based in the Netherlands. The Bank provides various financial products and services across a variety of channels, including its Mobile Banking app and Internet Banking. The Bank's product portfolio includes insurances, mortgages, savings, investments, loans and payments, among others. The Bank serves retail, private and corporate clients worldwide.

Ackermans & van Haaren NV

Ackermans & Van Haaren is an investment company. Co. operates in five sectors: Marine Engineering & Infrastructure, which includes DEME NV, a dredging and marine company; Private Banking, which includes BDM NV - Continentale Verzekeringen NV (ASCO NV), which focuses on marine and industrial insurance via brokers; Real Estate, Leisure & Senior Care, which includes Extensa Group NV, a real estate developer; Energy & Resources, which includes Telemond Group, a supplier to the crane and automotive industry; and Development Capital, which is engaged in ICT and engineering, retail and distribution, real estate development, and media and printing.

Arcadis NV

Arcadis NV is a global asset design and consultancy company. The Company is engaged in providing consultancy, design, engineering and management services in the area of infrastructure, water, environment and buildings. The Company's segments include Americas; Europe and Middle East; Asia Pacific, and CallisonRTKL. Its business lines include infrastructure, water, environment and buildings. Infrastructure business line focuses on sustainable infrastructure solutions for transportation by road, rail, air and over water, and creating reliable energy supply systems. The Company is an environmental solutions provider to private industry, and delivers projects that protect the earth's resources. It offers water supply, treatment, management and conveyance solutions. The Company also offers contract solutions, master planning and sustainable urban development, commercially led program management, business advisory, data analysis and architecture and design solutions.

Bekaert SA

Bekaert is a global technological and market company engaged in advanced solutions based in steel wire transformation and coatings as well as an independent manufacturer of drawn steel wire products. In addition, Co. teams up with customers and suppliers globally to develop, implement, upgrade, and protect both current and future technologies. Co.'s business activities are put in practice along two main axes: Product Innovation and Process Innovation. Product Innovation helps Co. better serve its customers, while Process innovation enables Co. to increase operational effectiveness, minimizing its impact on the environment.

Care Property Invest SA

Care Property Invest NV. Care Property Invest NV, formerly Serviceflats Invest NV, is a Belgium-based real estate investment company that builds and finances housing for pensioners. The Company specializes in premises equipped with technologies ensuring safety and comfort of elderly people. In addition, Care Property Invest designs, builds, supervises the progress of a number of construction works, monitors the budget and finances projects in the long term. Care Property Invest NV cooperates mainly for public health care center in Antwerp -Openbaar Centrum voor Maatschappelijk Welziijn (OCMW), including Berchem. The Company focuses its activities on the Belgian market. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, such as Ter Bleuk NV, Siger SA and Konli BVBA and VSP Wolvertem bvba.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Gimv NV

GIMV is a listed investment company, specializing in private equity and venture capital and active in small and medium buyouts, growth financing and technology investments. Co. is also present with technology investments across Europe and in Israel, Japan and the USA. Co. invests in ICT (Technology), environmentally friendly technology (Cleantech) and Life Sciences.

Heineken NV

Heineken is an international brewer and engaged in the production and distribution of beer brands in 178 countries. Co. is committed to the marketing and consumption of its more than 250 international premium, regional, local and specialty beers and ciders. These include Heineken®, Amstel, Anchor, Biere Larue, Bintang, Birra Moretti, Cruzcampo, Desperados, Dos Equis, Foster's, Newcastle Brown Ale, Ochota, Primus, Sagres, Sol, Star, Strongbow, Tecate, Tiger and Zywiec. In addition, Co. is the cider maker with brands such as Strongbow® and Bulmer's®. Some of its wholesalers also distribute wine, spirits and soft drinks.

Ion Beam Applications SA

IBA- Ion Beam Applications develops and markets technologies and pharmaceutical products for the healthcare sector, with a focus on cancer diagnosis and therapy. Co. is also engaged in the sterilization and ionization market. Co. operates in two primary business segments: Equipment and Pharmaceuticals. Co.'s Equipment segment encompasses development, fabrication, and services associated with medical and industrial particle accelerators, proton therapy systems, and a range of dosimetry products, while Co.'s Pharmaceuticals segment encompasses the production and distribution of radiopharmaceutical agents as well as its bioassay operations.

SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED

Sofina SA

SOFINA is an investment company whose portfolio consists of shareholdings in various companies. Co. manages a portfolio of long-term and short-term investments. Its portfolio comprises investments in companies which are active in sectors such as: Energy and Services (GDF Suez, Suez Environnement, bioMerieux and Exmar); Retail (Colruyt, Delhaize); Consumer goods (Danone, Rapala, B & W Group, and Chapoutier); Satellite operators (SES); Finance Companies (Eurazeo, Caledonia, Luxempart, RAB Capital); Industry (Petit Forestier, Landis + Gyr, Carbone Lorraine and Deceuninck) and Alternative assets (Private equity, Hedge funds).

Solvay SA

Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).

TKH Group N.V. Cert

TKH Group creates and supplies Telecom, Building and Industrial Solutions. Telecom Solutions develops, produces and supplies systems ranging from outdoor infrastructure for telecom and CATV networks through to indoor home networking applications. Building Solutions develops, produces and supplies solutions in the field of electro-technology ranging from applications within buildings through to technical systems that - combined with software - provide solutions for the care and security sectors. Industrial Solutions develops, produces and supplies solutions ranging from specialty cable, "plug and play" cable systems through to integrated systems for the production of car and truck tires.

UCB S.A.

UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.

Van De Velde S.A.

Van de Velde creates, produces and sells luxury women's lingerie under its own brand names. Co.'s brands are Marie Jo – 'Haute Lingerie' which provides timeless underwear fashion for the woman in all her forms; Marie Jo L'Aventure – 'Lingerie Pure' which provides Graphic luxury lingerie for the young-at-heart woman; and PrimaDonna – 'Exigez l'excellence' which provides luxury lingerie that combines a fit with fashion. Co. operates in a single reporting business segment, which is the production and sale of luxury lingerie. Co. reports its opeStefaan Vandammerations based on the geographical location of customers divided into euro zone and non euro zone.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Guy Sips

Jacob Mekhael

Kristof Samoy

Lynn Hautekeete

Michiel Declercq

Sharad Kumar S.P

Thibault Leneeuw

Thomas Couvreur

Thomas Vranken

Wim Hoste

Wim Lewi

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from KBC Securities
Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

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