Report
Guy Sips ...
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update November 2024 – Adding Azelis – Removing Solvay

With 2 changes in our Dynamic Top Pick list (we add Azelis and we remove Solvay) we maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks have finally started. The Trump election victory in the US does not bode well for European stocks as he favours a protectionist course. Although industrial companies with a US base could actually benefit. Cleantech names with exposure to the US could also suffer (unless owned by E.Musk). We expect the US inflation and interest rates to increase and the Euro to weaken if the ECB can follow an independent course. This should protect the dividend stocks like real-estate and infrastructure in Europe. In Germany by-elections in the Eastern part showed a shift to extreme right and left that will make GE budget decisions even more difficult. It is likely the German Government will call early election next year instead of waiting till September. Economic growth forecasts for Benelux and the Eurozone are edging down. We still expect a mild economic slow-down in Europe (0.7%) and Benelux over the next 12 months as it takes a while before lower interest rates impact the economy. Overall a relative defensive stance in the portfolio is warranted.

We add Azelis to our Dynamic Top Pick List as we forecast that 4Q24 will be the first quarter to report organic growth in all regions since 3Q22. Furthermore, we highlight that Azelis improved the gross profit margins over the years regardless the overall product mix. We expect the discount with IMCD will decrease post 3Q24 results of IMCD given a similar FX impact and higher OpEx. As we have an a DCF-based valuation of € 28 per share, we reiterate our Buy rating and see Azelis as a nice addition to our Dynamic Top Pick List.

On the other hand, we remove Solvay from our Dynamic Top Pick List after a solid share price rally in the past few months and taking into account our decision yesterday to downgrade to Accumulate. Whilst the valuation still looks reasonably attractive with ao a dividend yield of over 6%, we see no major acceleration in a number of end-markets. Weak construction markets and expanding Chinese soda ash production mean that it will be hard to meaningfully increase soda ash prices for the 2025 contracts, on which negotiations are now starting. Soda ash is the group's largest business, representing over 40% of revenue. We now see better risk/reward elsewhere in the Chemical sector, explaining our decision to remove Solvay from the Dynamic Top Pick List.

As a result, we continue with 8 cyclical and 9 defensive stocks in our Dynamic Top Pick List with a focus on value stocks that have been left behind. Defensive segment like holdings are overweight. However, in the Benelux we have a selection of cyclical industrials at cheap valuations that have often underperformed the market. We favour Benelux value stocks as even a mild recession typically hits growth stocks proportionally harder. We notice that some stocks have been hit hard by minor set-backs. These could be more relatively more resilient over FY24 as investors look for left behind stocks.
Underlyings
ABN AMRO Bank NV Depositary receipts

ABN Amro Bank NV is a bank based in the Netherlands. The Bank provides various financial products and services across a variety of channels, including its Mobile Banking app and Internet Banking. The Bank's product portfolio includes insurances, mortgages, savings, investments, loans and payments, among others. The Bank serves retail, private and corporate clients worldwide.

Ackermans & van Haaren NV

Ackermans & Van Haaren is an investment company. Co. operates in five sectors: Marine Engineering & Infrastructure, which includes DEME NV, a dredging and marine company; Private Banking, which includes BDM NV - Continentale Verzekeringen NV (ASCO NV), which focuses on marine and industrial insurance via brokers; Real Estate, Leisure & Senior Care, which includes Extensa Group NV, a real estate developer; Energy & Resources, which includes Telemond Group, a supplier to the crane and automotive industry; and Development Capital, which is engaged in ICT and engineering, retail and distribution, real estate development, and media and printing.

AZELIS GROUP NV

Bekaert SA

Bekaert is a global technological and market company engaged in advanced solutions based in steel wire transformation and coatings as well as an independent manufacturer of drawn steel wire products. In addition, Co. teams up with customers and suppliers globally to develop, implement, upgrade, and protect both current and future technologies. Co.'s business activities are put in practice along two main axes: Product Innovation and Process Innovation. Product Innovation helps Co. better serve its customers, while Process innovation enables Co. to increase operational effectiveness, minimizing its impact on the environment.

Cofinimmo SA

Cofinimmo is a fixed capital real estate investment trust. Co. specializes in rental property. Its core investment segments are office property and nursing and care institutions. The portfolio also includes a Distribution property networks segment. Most of Co.'s assets are in Belgium. The foreign part consists of nursing homes/ clinics and the MAAF agencies network in France and the Pubstone portfolio in the Netherlands. Co.'s operations are organized into four segments: Offices, Nursing homes/Clinics, Distribution property networks, and Public-Private Partnerships.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Fagron SA

Fagron supplies products, services to professionals and institutions in the healthcare sector in Europe, the U.S.A. and Brazil. Co.'s activities are subdivided into four divisions. Through Fagron, Co. offers products and concepts for pharmaceutical compounding. Through Arseus Dental, Co. supplies dental products and concepts to dentists and dental laboratories in Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Switzerland. Through Arseus Medical, Co. supplies medical and surgical products to specialists, elderly homes, homecare nurses and hospitals in Belgium and the Netherlands. Through Corilus, Co. supplies ICT total solutions for medical specialists in Belgium, the Netherlands and France.

FUGRO NV

Heineken NV

Heineken is an international brewer and engaged in the production and distribution of beer brands in 178 countries. Co. is committed to the marketing and consumption of its more than 250 international premium, regional, local and specialty beers and ciders. These include Heineken®, Amstel, Anchor, Biere Larue, Bintang, Birra Moretti, Cruzcampo, Desperados, Dos Equis, Foster's, Newcastle Brown Ale, Ochota, Primus, Sagres, Sol, Star, Strongbow, Tecate, Tiger and Zywiec. In addition, Co. is the cider maker with brands such as Strongbow® and Bulmer's®. Some of its wholesalers also distribute wine, spirits and soft drinks.

Ion Beam Applications SA

IBA- Ion Beam Applications develops and markets technologies and pharmaceutical products for the healthcare sector, with a focus on cancer diagnosis and therapy. Co. is also engaged in the sterilization and ionization market. Co. operates in two primary business segments: Equipment and Pharmaceuticals. Co.'s Equipment segment encompasses development, fabrication, and services associated with medical and industrial particle accelerators, proton therapy systems, and a range of dosimetry products, while Co.'s Pharmaceuticals segment encompasses the production and distribution of radiopharmaceutical agents as well as its bioassay operations.

Kinepolis Group NV

Kinepolis Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which is primarily engaged in the operation of cinemas. The Company's activities are divided into such business units, as Box office, In-theatre sales, Business-to-business (B2B), Film distribution and Real Estate. The Box office unit includes sale of the tickets. The In-theatre sales unit is involved in the sale of snacks and related articles. The B2B unit takes care of the organization of corporate events and the sale of screen advertizing to corporate customers. The Film distribution unit includes all activities related to movies showed in the cinema. The Real Estate is responsible for the property management and utilization. Additionally, the Company has a Technical department, which delivers technological support to Kinepolis facilities. The Company is present in Belgium, France, Spain and Poland.

NN Group N.V.

NN Group is a financial services company based in the Netherlands. Co. engages in insurance and investment management activities, providing life and non-life insurance products primarily in the Netherlands, Belgium, rest of Europe, and Asia. Co. offers group and individual life insurance; and motor, transport, fire, liability, travel, and income insurance. Co. also offers retirement, insurance, investments, and banking services to retail, SME, corporate, and institutional customers. Co. is active in 18 countries, with a presence predominantly in a number of European countries and Japan.

Sofina SA

SOFINA is an investment company whose portfolio consists of shareholdings in various companies. Co. manages a portfolio of long-term and short-term investments. Its portfolio comprises investments in companies which are active in sectors such as: Energy and Services (GDF Suez, Suez Environnement, bioMerieux and Exmar); Retail (Colruyt, Delhaize); Consumer goods (Danone, Rapala, B & W Group, and Chapoutier); Satellite operators (SES); Finance Companies (Eurazeo, Caledonia, Luxempart, RAB Capital); Industry (Petit Forestier, Landis + Gyr, Carbone Lorraine and Deceuninck) and Alternative assets (Private equity, Hedge funds).

Solvay SA

Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).

TINC Comm. VA

TINC Comm VA. Tinc Comm VA, also known as TINC, is a Belgium-based company focusing on investments in Infrastructure Asset Companies holding capitalintensive Infrastructure Assets providing services and generating cash flows of a long term sustainable nature. The Initial Investment Portfolio of the Company includes investments in over 10 Infrastructure Asset Companies holding underlying Infrastructure Assets in public private partnerships (PPP), energy and real assets in Belgium and the Netherlands, including Strorm and Brabo 1, among others. It operates through Storm Holding 4 NV.

Xior Student Housing N.V.

Xior Student Housing NV is a Belgium-based company active in the field of residential Real Estate. The Company's offer is mainly for students and it includes several types of rooms for rent, including a student house in Leiden.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Guy Sips

Jacob Mekhael

Kristof Samoy

Lynn Hautekeete

Michiel Declercq

Sharad Kumar S.P

Thibault Leneeuw

Thomas Couvreur

Thomas Vranken

Wim Hoste

Wim Lewi

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