Report
Guy Sips ...
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update September 2024 –Cofinimmo & Kinepolis in; CP Invest & Van de Velde out

In this September update of our Dynamic Top Pick List we make 4 changes.

•We include Cofinimmo in our Dynamic Top Pick List after our recent upgrade from Accumulate to Buy. We expect the name to outperform in a decreasing interest rate environment given its relatively high leverage and cheap valuation. We also believe the risk of a dilutive equity raise eased when the FY24 capex decreased from € 320m to € 250m. The management stays disciplined in its capex program and continues to focus on asset rotation. By taking into account similar fair value corrections as 1H24, we forecast the YE24 debt ratio at 43.6%. We set our Target Price at € 75.0 per share.

• We also include Kinepolis in our Dynamic Top Pick List after they had, as expected, a challenging first half of the year, with even fewer visitors than we expected due to a poor blockbuster offering. Recall that the long strike in 2023 in Hollywood prevented a return to the rich film offering from before the pandemic, but Kinepolis indicated that improvement is heralded. Since June, a turnaround has begun thanks to the success of 'Inside Out 2' and 'Deadpool & Wolverine', and numerous big releases are planned in the autumn, including the highly anticipated 'Joker: Folie à Deux', 'Gladiator II' and 'Moana 2'. We have a Buy rating and € 50 Target Price.

• We remove Care Property Invest from our Dynamic Top Pick List. Care Property Invest reported results in line with our expectations. In 1H24 Care Property Invest elected a new CEO, Patrick Couttenier. It also announced its inclusion in the EPRA index. These were the two main triggers for our Buy recommendation. As the share price has now moved closer to our target price and the triggers passed, we reduce our Buy recommendation to an Accumulate recommendation and remove the stock from our Dynamic Top Pick List. Given the 48.9% debt ratio we don't see more room for additional growth beyond the current announced pipeline. This is including the € 10.2m Bloemendaal acquisition announced in 2Q24. We repeat our €15.5 Target Price.

• We also remove Van de Velde from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the unfavourable weather conditions led to lower 1H24 sales in many stores. Especially in swim sales, Van de Velde experienced a decrease. After our model update, we lowered our Target Price to € 38.5 (was € 40) but maintained our Buy-rating as Van de Velde approaches 2H24 with confidence, even though they remain vigilant in the current environment. The strong market position of its brands PrimaDonna and Marie Jo in both the Benelux and Germany provides them with a strong foundation for the future. We welcome that the launch of the Sarda brand got off to a promising start. So, Van de Velde is sharpening its market position in challenging spring for fashion industry.

As a result, we continue with a 50/50 cyclical/defensive selection with a focus on value stocks that have been left behind. Defensive segment like holdings are overweight. However, in the Benelux we have a selection of cyclical industrials at cheap valuations that have often underperformed the market. We favour Benelux value stocks as even a mild recession typically hits growth stocks proportionally harder. We notice that some stocks have been hit hard by minor set-backs. These could be more relatively more resilient over FY24 as investors look for left behind stocks.

We maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. We still expect a mild economic slow-down in Europe and Benelux over the next 12-18 months as it takes a while before lower interest rates impact the economy.
Underlyings
ABN AMRO Bank NV Depositary receipts

ABN Amro Bank NV is a bank based in the Netherlands. The Bank provides various financial products and services across a variety of channels, including its Mobile Banking app and Internet Banking. The Bank's product portfolio includes insurances, mortgages, savings, investments, loans and payments, among others. The Bank serves retail, private and corporate clients worldwide.

Ackermans & van Haaren NV

Ackermans & Van Haaren is an investment company. Co. operates in five sectors: Marine Engineering & Infrastructure, which includes DEME NV, a dredging and marine company; Private Banking, which includes BDM NV - Continentale Verzekeringen NV (ASCO NV), which focuses on marine and industrial insurance via brokers; Real Estate, Leisure & Senior Care, which includes Extensa Group NV, a real estate developer; Energy & Resources, which includes Telemond Group, a supplier to the crane and automotive industry; and Development Capital, which is engaged in ICT and engineering, retail and distribution, real estate development, and media and printing.

Bekaert SA

Bekaert is a global technological and market company engaged in advanced solutions based in steel wire transformation and coatings as well as an independent manufacturer of drawn steel wire products. In addition, Co. teams up with customers and suppliers globally to develop, implement, upgrade, and protect both current and future technologies. Co.'s business activities are put in practice along two main axes: Product Innovation and Process Innovation. Product Innovation helps Co. better serve its customers, while Process innovation enables Co. to increase operational effectiveness, minimizing its impact on the environment.

Care Property Invest SA

Care Property Invest NV. Care Property Invest NV, formerly Serviceflats Invest NV, is a Belgium-based real estate investment company that builds and finances housing for pensioners. The Company specializes in premises equipped with technologies ensuring safety and comfort of elderly people. In addition, Care Property Invest designs, builds, supervises the progress of a number of construction works, monitors the budget and finances projects in the long term. Care Property Invest NV cooperates mainly for public health care center in Antwerp -Openbaar Centrum voor Maatschappelijk Welziijn (OCMW), including Berchem. The Company focuses its activities on the Belgian market. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, such as Ter Bleuk NV, Siger SA and Konli BVBA and VSP Wolvertem bvba.

Cofinimmo SA

Cofinimmo is a fixed capital real estate investment trust. Co. specializes in rental property. Its core investment segments are office property and nursing and care institutions. The portfolio also includes a Distribution property networks segment. Most of Co.'s assets are in Belgium. The foreign part consists of nursing homes/ clinics and the MAAF agencies network in France and the Pubstone portfolio in the Netherlands. Co.'s operations are organized into four segments: Offices, Nursing homes/Clinics, Distribution property networks, and Public-Private Partnerships.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Fagron SA

Fagron supplies products, services to professionals and institutions in the healthcare sector in Europe, the U.S.A. and Brazil. Co.'s activities are subdivided into four divisions. Through Fagron, Co. offers products and concepts for pharmaceutical compounding. Through Arseus Dental, Co. supplies dental products and concepts to dentists and dental laboratories in Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Switzerland. Through Arseus Medical, Co. supplies medical and surgical products to specialists, elderly homes, homecare nurses and hospitals in Belgium and the Netherlands. Through Corilus, Co. supplies ICT total solutions for medical specialists in Belgium, the Netherlands and France.

FUGRO NV

Heineken NV

Heineken is an international brewer and engaged in the production and distribution of beer brands in 178 countries. Co. is committed to the marketing and consumption of its more than 250 international premium, regional, local and specialty beers and ciders. These include Heineken®, Amstel, Anchor, Biere Larue, Bintang, Birra Moretti, Cruzcampo, Desperados, Dos Equis, Foster's, Newcastle Brown Ale, Ochota, Primus, Sagres, Sol, Star, Strongbow, Tecate, Tiger and Zywiec. In addition, Co. is the cider maker with brands such as Strongbow® and Bulmer's®. Some of its wholesalers also distribute wine, spirits and soft drinks.

Ion Beam Applications SA

IBA- Ion Beam Applications develops and markets technologies and pharmaceutical products for the healthcare sector, with a focus on cancer diagnosis and therapy. Co. is also engaged in the sterilization and ionization market. Co. operates in two primary business segments: Equipment and Pharmaceuticals. Co.'s Equipment segment encompasses development, fabrication, and services associated with medical and industrial particle accelerators, proton therapy systems, and a range of dosimetry products, while Co.'s Pharmaceuticals segment encompasses the production and distribution of radiopharmaceutical agents as well as its bioassay operations.

Kinepolis Group NV

Kinepolis Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which is primarily engaged in the operation of cinemas. The Company's activities are divided into such business units, as Box office, In-theatre sales, Business-to-business (B2B), Film distribution and Real Estate. The Box office unit includes sale of the tickets. The In-theatre sales unit is involved in the sale of snacks and related articles. The B2B unit takes care of the organization of corporate events and the sale of screen advertizing to corporate customers. The Film distribution unit includes all activities related to movies showed in the cinema. The Real Estate is responsible for the property management and utilization. Additionally, the Company has a Technical department, which delivers technological support to Kinepolis facilities. The Company is present in Belgium, France, Spain and Poland.

Sofina SA

SOFINA is an investment company whose portfolio consists of shareholdings in various companies. Co. manages a portfolio of long-term and short-term investments. Its portfolio comprises investments in companies which are active in sectors such as: Energy and Services (GDF Suez, Suez Environnement, bioMerieux and Exmar); Retail (Colruyt, Delhaize); Consumer goods (Danone, Rapala, B & W Group, and Chapoutier); Satellite operators (SES); Finance Companies (Eurazeo, Caledonia, Luxempart, RAB Capital); Industry (Petit Forestier, Landis + Gyr, Carbone Lorraine and Deceuninck) and Alternative assets (Private equity, Hedge funds).

Solvay SA

Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).

TINC Comm. VA

TINC Comm VA. Tinc Comm VA, also known as TINC, is a Belgium-based company focusing on investments in Infrastructure Asset Companies holding capitalintensive Infrastructure Assets providing services and generating cash flows of a long term sustainable nature. The Initial Investment Portfolio of the Company includes investments in over 10 Infrastructure Asset Companies holding underlying Infrastructure Assets in public private partnerships (PPP), energy and real assets in Belgium and the Netherlands, including Strorm and Brabo 1, among others. It operates through Storm Holding 4 NV.

Van De Velde S.A.

Van de Velde creates, produces and sells luxury women's lingerie under its own brand names. Co.'s brands are Marie Jo – 'Haute Lingerie' which provides timeless underwear fashion for the woman in all her forms; Marie Jo L'Aventure – 'Lingerie Pure' which provides Graphic luxury lingerie for the young-at-heart woman; and PrimaDonna – 'Exigez l'excellence' which provides luxury lingerie that combines a fit with fashion. Co. operates in a single reporting business segment, which is the production and sale of luxury lingerie. Co. reports its opeStefaan Vandammerations based on the geographical location of customers divided into euro zone and non euro zone.

Xior Student Housing N.V.

Xior Student Housing NV is a Belgium-based company active in the field of residential Real Estate. The Company's offer is mainly for students and it includes several types of rooms for rent, including a student house in Leiden.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Guy Sips

Jacob Mekhael

Kristof Samoy

Lynn Hautekeete

Michiel Declercq

Sharad Kumar S.P

Thibault Leneeuw

Thomas Couvreur

Thomas Vranken

Wim Hoste

Wim Lewi

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