Ackermans & van Haaren Tempering our expectations for the private banking segment

Recently, the AvH stock rose above our €272 target (set 1 year ago), and for good reasons. FY25 results exceeded expectations, with core participations delivering record contributions overall. Entering 2026, we have updated our valuation model for the private banking segment. Recent financials and a noticeable compression in forward peer multiples have led to modestly lower current valuations and a more material reduction in our forward (FY26E) target valuations. Based on our forecasts of €294m net profit for Delen and €114m for Bank Van Breda in FY26, we now target €3.2bn for Delen (down from €3.5bn) and €1.3bn for Bank Van Breda (down from €1.4bn). We estimate NAV at €274ps (with a target NAV of €317ps), meaning that AvH is trading at ~3.3% a premium (5-year avg. discount is ~10%). While the mix of listed and private assets could arguably justify a smaller discount, we maintain our 10% target discount for now. This results in a target price of €300ps. With limited upside from current levels, we downgrade our rating from Buy to Accumulate.