Report
Benjamin Wolff ...
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Jeroen Van Den Bossche
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List – Update May 2023 Adding Solvay and ING – Removing Ageas

Today we make 3 changes to our Dynamic Top Pick List, which performed very well in the last month.

The market turbulence in the financial sector fuelled by SVB, First Republic and Credit Suisse, has made many banking stocks significantly cheaper. This includes ING, which is now trading at a forward PE of 7.05x; significantly below the last 5 year's average of 9.1x. Between 2013 and 2018 forward PE was even at 11.1x, while being in an interest rate environment of zero to negative rates, with no real outlook of improvement. It's clearly that banking stocks, and ING in particular, are currently trading on cheaper levels. ING might not be a banking stock with the lowest level of uncertainty out there; with e.g. still roughly €1.5b of exposure on Russia/Ukraine and the pending Payvision fraud case. However, a normalization of sentiment in the banking sector would greatly benefit ING as the current stock price is underappreciating the fundamental value significantly.

We have recently upgraded Solvay from Accumulate to Buy and now decide to also include it in our Dynamic Top Pick List. The upgrade came on the back of our decision to eliminate the 15% conglomerate discount we were previously using in our DCF & Sum-of-the-Parts models as we feel this discount is no longer warranted given that the planned separation of the company is coming closer. We believe the separation will be an important catalyst to unlock shareholder value. Under the helm of CEO Ilham Kadri, Solvay has made a significant step up in performance, with ROCE's increasing by almost 5pp in 2022 alone to 16% and leverage gradually reduced in the past few years to 1.1x. Beyond the heavy capex year 2023, we forecast annual FCF on group level at over € 1bn in the coming years. The strengthened balance sheet and solid FCF generation should allow both EssentialCo and SpecialtyCo to start with a strong balance sheet and sizeable firepower for actively pursuing growth opportunities.

Looking over the last 6 months, Ageas performed extremely well, gaining 25 to 36 percentage points on our peers. During that time sentiment on Ageas improved as the Chinese financial market recovered, a key element in our investment case. We continue to remain positive on the outlook of Ageas. Solid cash generation in Europe combined with strong upside potential from the Asian business, resulting is a high dividend yield and recurring share buybacks. However, given the recent shift in the market and Ageas' recent strong outperformance vs peers, we believe there is more short term potential in other names in the financial sector.

As a result we now have 17 stocks in our Dynamic Top Pick List. Since the start of the selection for 2023 (on 8 December 2022), the Dynamic Top Pick List is up 10%, outperforming the relevant indices (Bel20, AEX & Eurostoxx50) on average by 4.8%. Since our last publication of the Dynamic Top Pick List (6 April 2023) our list was up 3.3% outperforming these indices on average this month by 3.7%.
Underlyings
Ackermans & van Haaren NV

Ackermans & Van Haaren is an investment company. Co. operates in five sectors: Marine Engineering & Infrastructure, which includes DEME NV, a dredging and marine company; Private Banking, which includes BDM NV - Continentale Verzekeringen NV (ASCO NV), which focuses on marine and industrial insurance via brokers; Real Estate, Leisure & Senior Care, which includes Extensa Group NV, a real estate developer; Energy & Resources, which includes Telemond Group, a supplier to the crane and automotive industry; and Development Capital, which is engaged in ICT and engineering, retail and distribution, real estate development, and media and printing.

Adyen NV

Adyen NV, formerly Adyen BV, is provider of mobile, online and point-of-sale (POS) payment solutions based in the Netherlands. It operates an online platform enabling merchants to accept payments internationally and from all sales channels, such as online shops, mobile payments from applications and Websites, and POS, such as countertops, mobile terminals, tablets and cash registers, among others. The platform covers the entire payment chain, including technical, contractual, reconciliation and settlement processes. The platform is available in the form of ready-to-use payment pages (HPP), application programming interface (API), and client-side encryption solution (EE). The Company's customers include Mango, KLM, Netflix, Superdry, Uber, Groupon and Crocs, among others. It has offices in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, China, Australia, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, Sweden and the United States.

Aedifica SA

Aedifica is a property company, which is specialized in residential real estate. Co.'s portfolio has a superstructure of more than 225,911 sq. m as of June 30 2010. It owns: residential or mixed buildings in Belgian cities with classical leases; buildings with furnished apartments buildings in the heart of Brussels with shorter term leases; senior houses and serviceflats with very long term and triple net leases; and hotels. Co. invests: in existing and already leased buildings; and in projects with future completion. Co.'s activities can be divided into four segments: Residential or mixed buildings; Furnished apartments buildings; Senior houses; and Hotels and others.

Ageas SA/NV

Ageas is an insurance company engaged in providing a range of life and non-life products distributed through a variety of channels. Co. focuses on helping its customers to mitigate risks related to property, casualty, life and pensions. Co. serves its customers through a combination of wholly owned subsidiaries, equity associates and partnerships, with financial institutions and distributors in Belgium, the U.K., Luxembourg, Italy, Portugal, Turkey, France, China, Malaysia, India, Thailand and Hong Kong. Co. is organized into five operating segments: Belgium, U.K., Continental Europe, Asia, and General Account.

ArGEN-X SE

Argenx N.V. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing a deep pipeline of differentiated antibody-based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. Utilizing its suite of differentiated technologies, Co. is focused on developing product candidates with the potential to be either first-in-class against novel targets or best-in-class against known, but complex, targets in order to treat diseases with a significant unmet medical need.

Bekaert SA

Bekaert is a global technological and market company engaged in advanced solutions based in steel wire transformation and coatings as well as an independent manufacturer of drawn steel wire products. In addition, Co. teams up with customers and suppliers globally to develop, implement, upgrade, and protect both current and future technologies. Co.'s business activities are put in practice along two main axes: Product Innovation and Process Innovation. Product Innovation helps Co. better serve its customers, while Process innovation enables Co. to increase operational effectiveness, minimizing its impact on the environment.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

Fagron SA

Fagron supplies products, services to professionals and institutions in the healthcare sector in Europe, the U.S.A. and Brazil. Co.'s activities are subdivided into four divisions. Through Fagron, Co. offers products and concepts for pharmaceutical compounding. Through Arseus Dental, Co. supplies dental products and concepts to dentists and dental laboratories in Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Switzerland. Through Arseus Medical, Co. supplies medical and surgical products to specialists, elderly homes, homecare nurses and hospitals in Belgium and the Netherlands. Through Corilus, Co. supplies ICT total solutions for medical specialists in Belgium, the Netherlands and France.

ING Groep NV

ING Groep is a global financial institution based in the Netherlands. Co. is engaged in offering a wide range of retail and wholesale banking services to customers in over 40 countries across Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia. In addition to the basic banking services of lending, payments and cash management and treasury, Co. provides tailored banking solutions in areas including corporate finance, commercial finance (factoring), equity markets and debt capital markets to help clients achieve their business goals. Co.'s operations are organized along five segments: Retail Netherlands; RetailBelgium: Retail Germany: Retail Other; and Wholesale Banking.

Materialise ADS

Ontex Group N.V.

Ontex Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which operates in the manufacturing sector of industry. The Company is a producer of disposable personal hygiene solutions for babies, women and adults. It offers a range of such products as baby diapers, baby pants, baby wet wipes, pads, pantyliners, tampons, light incontinence products, pull-ups, belt diapers, all-in-one tape systems, shaped pads and underpards. Its products are distributed through retail partner brands, as well as under its own brands (canbebe, canped, Helen Harper, Moltex, Baby Charm) across several distribution channels, such as retail trade, care institutions and pharmacies. The Company is present in Europe, Northern Africa, Australia and Asia.

Solvay SA

Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).

TINC Comm. VA

TINC Comm VA. Tinc Comm VA, also known as TINC, is a Belgium-based company focusing on investments in Infrastructure Asset Companies holding capitalintensive Infrastructure Assets providing services and generating cash flows of a long term sustainable nature. The Initial Investment Portfolio of the Company includes investments in over 10 Infrastructure Asset Companies holding underlying Infrastructure Assets in public private partnerships (PPP), energy and real assets in Belgium and the Netherlands, including Strorm and Brabo 1, among others. It operates through Storm Holding 4 NV.

TKH Group N.V. Cert

TKH Group creates and supplies Telecom, Building and Industrial Solutions. Telecom Solutions develops, produces and supplies systems ranging from outdoor infrastructure for telecom and CATV networks through to indoor home networking applications. Building Solutions develops, produces and supplies solutions in the field of electro-technology ranging from applications within buildings through to technical systems that - combined with software - provide solutions for the care and security sectors. Industrial Solutions develops, produces and supplies solutions ranging from specialty cable, "plug and play" cable systems through to integrated systems for the production of car and truck tires.

UCB S.A.

UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.

Umicore

Umicore is global player in the materials technology and recycling industries. Co. focuses on application areas such as chemistry, materials science, metallurgy and recycling. Co.'s business model comprises four segments: Catalysis, Performance Materials, Energy Materials and Recycling. Catalysis focuses on the abatement of global automotive emissions; Performance Materials focuses on materials that help develop more sophisticated and safer products; Energy Materials produces materials used in the production and storage of clean energy including rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics; and Recycling treats complex waste streams containing precious and other non-ferrous metals.

VGP NV

VGP NV is a Belgium-based real estate development company that constructs and develops industrial real estate and ancillary offices, which are rented out to clients on long term lease contracts. The Company operates in three business segments: the Development activities segment is focused on the identification and acquisition of the land and development of the infrastructure, the design of buildings, the coordination of architectural and engineering aspects, the administration to obtain the necessary permits, the tendering and coordination of the construction works, including site management, and the facility management of the real estate portfolio; the Property Management and Leasing services segment is responsible for managing the operation of the buildings, and the Facilities Management services segment is responsible for managing the operation of the buildings and performs all actions, such as maintenance services, waste management services and maintenance greenery, among others.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

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Analysts
Benjamin Wolff

Guy Sips

Jacob Mekhael

Jeroen Van Den Bossche

Lynn Hautekeete

Michiel Declercq

Sharad Kumar S.P

Thibault Leneeuw

Thomas Couvreur

Thomas Vranken

Wim Hoste

Wim Lewi

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