Agfa Model update after strong 4Q25 recovery, but structural headwinds persist
We updated our model (€ 1.0 Target Price maintained) after Agfa delivered a clearly improved 4Q25, with adj. EBITDA up 28% y/y to € 39m and FCF of € 44m, bringing FY25 FCF to a positive € 35m. This late-year rebound partly masks a challenging FY25, which remained dominated by structural pressure in Radiology, the dilutive impact of the ongoing cloud transition in HealthCare IT, and rising uncertainty linked to silver price volatility.Agfa remains confident in the strategic direction of its “Growth Engines”: HealthCare IT, Digital Printing Solutions, Green Hydrogen Solutions.
We welcome HealthCare IT's transition to cloud technology as a key step in strengthening its long-term positioning as a global leader in Enterprise Imaging, even though it temporarily impacts revenue and profit. In Digital Printing Solutions, efforts continue to build a robust portfolio of high-end and mid-range offerings. While market conditions remain soft renewed demand is anticipated as economic stability returns. We remain cautious (Hold rating maintained) until strategic measures deliver and growth engines regain momentum.
Agfa-Gevaert develops, produces and distributes various analog and digital imaging systems and IT solutions, mainly for the printing industry and the healthcare sector, as well as for specific industrial applications. Co.'s operations can be divided into three business segments: Agfa Graphics, which provides integrated prepress products and services to the printing industry; Agfa HealthCare, which provides diagnostic imaging and healthcare IT products for hospitals and care centers around the world; and Agfa Specialty Products, which supplies a variety of film-based products to business- to-business customers outside the graphic and healthcare markets.
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